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  • 2/5 live casino

    Live 2/5 villain is solid lag who is a little tilted I have 1450 villain has 1350. I'm viewed as lag as well. I limp from utg+1 with 10c10s villain raised to 30 from cut off bb calls I call. Flop is 5c8d10d. It's checked to villain. He bets 50 bb folds I check raise to 135 he calls. Not an insta call but about 5 -10 seconds. Turn is 7s I lead for 250 he calls at same speed as flop. River Qs I bet 400 he thinks for about 20-30 seconds and ships for 650 more. I ask dealer for a count and observe villain. He is breathing very heavy which hasn't been observed by me over the last 5 hours of play. What do you do here?

  • #2
    On the river the board is 5c7s8dTdQs.

    His heavy breathing could be because he is excited about having the nuts. The nuts is J9, second nuts is 96, third nuts is 64.

    We do not need to know anything about our opponent if we apply simple logic.

    If he is the type of player to bluff the river then he is the type to get it in on the flop against your check raise with Jd9d, 9d6d, 6d4d, Ax diamonds, KdJd etc.

    If he is the type to call the flop check raise with draws then he is not the type to bluff the river. Using this reasoning he is never raising the river with a busted draw although he has a few - Ax diamonds, KdJd etc.

    However there are factors that ameliorate this conclusion.

    Your limp call pre flop is not consistent with being LAG. Also wimping pre flop is not consistent with LAGing post flop, so he will think it is unlikely that you are check raising with a draw.

    If he thinks you are not capable of check raising with a draw and betting three streets then he knows you have got to the river with a big hand that is not a straight, and it is a big hand you had on the flop.

    If he thinks you are capable of this, then you have got to the river with a big hand that includes straights and a few busted draws; but it is unlikely he thinks this.

    If you are on a draw, it is more likely he is not and vice versa. You are not on a draw, so there is a good chance he is. If he is on a draw then he knows it is likely you are not, and this is consistent with his view of your pre flop and flop action.

    Overall he thinks you have a decent hand, it could be 55, 88, TT, T8, AT. By the river you will not be overjoyed with your T8, AT and he will not be too thrilled with his QT, KdQd etc so the river action is not consistent with these hands. He would probably fold QT, AA, KK, QQ, JJ on the turn if he thinks you are unlikely to play AT in the described manner. When the check raise gets called AT might well shut down and would likely have check called in preference to check raise.

    So although he may be the type to bluff the river, he realises that you have a big hand on the flop and therefore chooses not to push his draws on the flop and knows there is no point in bluffing the river.

    So we arrive back at the conclusions that he is never bluffing the river; he thinks you have a big hand that is not a straight, and that he may have big hands that include straights.

    After your check raise he may not be too thrilled with his 55, but he may think his 88 is good, particularly as even a wimp might raise pre flop with TT. If he thinks this he might be keen to get the money in on the flop before a diamond or other draws kill the action. If he is not keen to get 55 in on the flop he certainly will be less keen by the river.

    Therefore we conclude that his most likely hand by the river is a straight and that he is hoping you have 55, 88, TT.

    Would he raise the turn with a straight if he thinks you have a set. You might fold a set which would be disastrous; not many people fold sets, but this board has three straights. There is a 25% chance of a set improving to a full house or quads. If a diamond comes it might kill some action, but not all of it. So he might think it worth the risk of just calling in order to get your whole stack. If the board pairs he will just call your river bet.

    You are getting huge odds to call the river raise. Harrington says the minimum chance of a bluff in any situation against any opponent is 10%. I am not sure about that, but it is a guide. You only need to be good 24%. My assessment is that you are rarely good and should therefore fold.

    What could he have called the check raise with. He cannot fold QQ every time someone gets aggressive, but might on the turn. If he doesn't think you are raising with a diamond draw he might well call with any J9, and very likely Jc9c as well as Jd9d, 9d6d, 6d4d. He might call with 9c6c, 6c4c, in each case the turn gives him a straight. If he doesn't put you on a draw he might treat his 64 straight as the nuts. He might call with any 64 because he thinks you have a big enough hand for him to get paid for his gut shot.

    He is calling $85 in order to win $1400+, so if he thinks you have a big enough hand he can call $85 with any gut shot, even if his gut shot completes a flush he does not have. With a flush on the board you still have to call a turn bet in the hope of filling up. When you call the turn bet it is difficult to fold to a moderate river bet. He can do all of this because he knows you are not on a draw.


    J9o, 96s, 64s are all in some players CO raising ranges. He could also have 55, 77, 88, QQ. With all of these hands he could easily bet the flop even against two opponents. Your check raise might fold out some but I wouldn't guarantee it. There is a chance he will show up with 55, 77, 88, QQ.

    River bluffs are uncommon at $2-$5 and you have shown a lot of strength, so he rarely has a busted draw. I doubt if he thinks you are getting out of line.

    There is a good chance he knows you have a big hand and it is not a straight. His heavy breathing might be because he is hoping you have a huge but second best hand. He might also have asthma.

    Overall the chance he has a straight are very high; you should fold despite the big odds; it is unlikely he has 55, 77, 88.

    By the way this illustrates why both world class players and bad spazzy players are equally difficult to play against; both ends of the spectrum defy logical processes. It is the good solid middle spectrum that is ridiculously easy to play against, because against these players the logical deductions are correct 95%.

    Focussing heavily on pre flop ranges may thwart our thinking. The most effective tool is Occam's Razor. No matter how improbable a priori when the a posteriori evidence point to the improbable then this becomes the most probable.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 03-15-2017, 10:46 PM.

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    • #3
      I am by far far far from an expert, but when the opponent is about an equal stack and a bit crazy and calling sizable bets the whole way...is it terrible to check/call the river (to avoid being committed) being out of position since there are many hands that beat a set of 10's by the end?

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