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Shove or Fold? Stop-n-Go?

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  • Shove or Fold? Stop-n-Go?

    17 players left in noon deepstack MTT. First place is about $9K. 13th place is $600.

    UTG, who is tight, raises to 4BB. He has about 10 BB behind.

    Action folds to you in BB. You have 8.5 BB left. You think that you are the shortest stack left in the tournament. You look down at 3-3. Shove or fold? Stop-n-go?

  • #2
    After a tight raise you have to expect a call.

    I always have to remind myself the 33 is great to open short stacked, but not great for a raise

    Here is a tight, short handed range:

    Click image for larger version

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    You are only 33%

    Here is a more standard range, but you are still only 37%

    Click image for larger version

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    • #3
      so the simple-minded way of doing the math is that there is about 50% chance the raiser has a pair and about 50% chance he has two overs. i am 53/47 or so 1/2 the time and 20/80 the other 1/2 of the time.

      so i get to the same 35% at the table that you get to with your chart. now the hard question--if you have a 1/3 chance of more than doubling as short stack here at this exact point in the tournament do you take it? you really need a double up to have any chance of getting on the road to a top 3 finish. is it reasonable to think that a better opportunity will present before you bust? i think there is sort of an icm-type way of thinking about it that says take this opportunity when you could move toward 20bb rather than blind down where a double won't be worth as much. very close i think .


      • #4
        Simple fold for me under any circumstance.


        • #5
          my two cent view in this topic stop& go or shove pre. both will have different result. lets say hero has short stack has AA i would suggest shove pre, because you will get more caller to call you off and pay you off. what range will call your pre shove , most stupid gambler will call you off with any small pocket pair or call you all with kq ,kJ etc. if those hand you do not wish to race against villain range , i think its better to use stop and go. lets say i having AK i do not want to raise i will flat pre, and shove flop, lets say flop come T 5 2, if no one has 22, 55, Tx or overpair they hardly able to call your shove at flop,

          in summary my conclusion is easier to get fold equity postflop then preflop, but the opposite is also true is harder to get value at flop then pre. if hero shove with AK pre , AQ has the tendency to pay off at pre, if at flop both miss the flop AK cant get value from AQ, most player play honest at flop if they dont hit anything they fold.


          • #6
            Assuming villain is a competent player, a few things that would cross my mind in game.

            1. He is putting in 40% of his stack here in EP when he started with only 10bb. With him doing this, it gives us basically a 0% chance of having any fold equity with our even smaller stack. So I view this as a spot where we are getting called almost always.

            2. He is tight, meaning his range is crushing us. At best here we are flipping against two overs.

            3. With stacks this short, our only realistic option is shoving as calling creates a roughly 10bb pot with 4bb behind. Shoving the flop creates a 14bb pot and he only has to call 4bb giving him basically the right odds to call off his entire range no matter the flop.

            4. You have still have 4 spots to go before getting paid. Even though we are the short stack, we have a respectable 8.5bb and there is no need to panic quite yet and take sub-optimal spots.

            With that being said, its a fold for me.


            • #7
              Fold. Against a wider range and weaker opponent, stop and go might work. But shoving should have no fold equity, where bad players may fold the flop if they miss.


              • #8
                I agree with this being a fold for all the above reasons.


                • #9
                  Seems like an easy fold. Best case is you're against 2 overs, and have to sweat those cards, plus the board pairing twice, plus all the pocket pairs UTG has. I don't think UTG ever folds to a shove, so I don't think there is any fold equity.

                  You also have quite a while before you have to take the BB again, so your 8.5 BB stack will still be roughly 7 BB after 7-8 more hands even if you don't find any good steal spots.