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Bad call on the river?

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  • Bad call on the river?

    PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 30 NL - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4:

    CO: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 21.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 55)
    BTN: 56.61 BB (VPIP: 20.75, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 55)
    SB: 96.18 BB (VPIP: 29.09, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 55)
    Hero (BB): 42.36 BB
    UTG: 59.97 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
    UTG+1: 24.59 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
    MP: 26.93 BB (VPIP: 7.84, PFR: 3.92, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
    MP+1: 25.38 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 17)

    8 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has Kc Kh
    fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 1.9 BB

    Flop : (9.7 BB, 2 players) 9c Qc 7c
    Hero bets 4.85 BB, BTN calls 4.85 BB

    Turn : (19.4 BB, 2 players) Jh
    Hero bets 9.7 BB, BTN calls 9.7 BB

    River : (38.8 BB, 2 players) 8h
    Hero checks, BTN bets 37.91 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 23.66 BB and is all-in

    BTN shows Tc Js (Straight, Queen High)
    (Pre 16%, Flop 16%, Turn 14%)

    Hero shows Kc Kh (One Pair, Kings)
    (Pre 84%, Flop 84%, Turn 86%)

    BTN wins 86.12 BB

    Replaying the hand, I think my 3bet was too small, probably should have been more like 5-6BB. At the time, I recognized the bad river card completing the straight but thought he might be capable of overvaluing AQ, or bluff a busted flush draw. Now that I think about it, I am pretty sure he doesn't make that move without a straight or flush. I think I should have been able to fold in that spot. Thoughts?

  • #2
    With bad players. Call call shove man's you lose... With good players it's polarized. I'm not calling this. We're only beating a bluff


    • #3
      Reraising to about 6BB OOP preflop seems about right.

      Flop is fine. Turn seems reasonable with the Kc in our hand, as we block some of the likely flush combos our opponent has. I can be convinced that checking turn is better, though as we're not likely to get three streets of value with much worse.

      On the river, we're going to have nut flushes and sets that we need to call with. We're unlikely to have many two pair combos in our three bet range, so then the question is whether we need to call with overpairs. Our SPR is such that we might be able to justify stacking off with an overpair, especially one with a blocker to the flush. But on a board that really favors our opponent (as he's way more likely to have straights and random two pair hands like QJ or J9) it's really close and I can see folding being ok.