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Giant Day 2 ~29BB spot

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  • Giant Day 2 ~29BB spot

    Roughly 80 players left in the Giant Day 2. Everyone's in the money but the real payjumps haven't hit yet.

    B: 50K/100K/15K
    S: 2.9M
    P: BB
    H: AsQs

    Action folds to somewhat LAG-ish older Asian in the HJ, who had been opening quite a bit. He raises to 225K. Folds around to me.

    What do we do here with 29BB? Probably have the image at this table of being somewhat tight.

    I talked with quite a few people about this hand over the weekend, including Jonathan on Sunday at the CSOP event at the MGM, and there were definitely differences in opinion on this spot.

  • #2
    Don't Fold!

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    • #3
      Actually I would probably 3 bet/call. I'm sure there were some calls and some shove answers mixed in, and really, as long as you didn't fold, you can't be making too huge an error.

      But I like the 3bet/call line because whenever you open up the betting again for a LAG when you are way ahead of his range to shove, good thngs can happen.

      If you call, too often you will be guessing on the flop when you miss and he c-bets. If you shove, you are taking the play away from him.
      Last edited by jjpregler; 07-12-2017, 09:22 PM.

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      • #4
        You have to plan your hand through to the river NOW. So this decision is based on a lot of factors depending on your skill level and whatever factors your game favors. Folding is an option but likely the last option and based on a read.

        For example, if you call, there will be about 750k in the center, in most cases you'll pay of 2 streets and half pot bets for 750k and 1.50mm effectively all in, best case. This is not much of a pot control line, but you're playing poker for whatever percent of your stack. Should you advance.

        If you raise, you raise, the correct size is about 700k, if villain flats that's 1.850m in the center and you're still pot committed. So the question is do you play and jam if you hit? Jam now? Jam the turn?

        It's these decisions that make or break you. Don't fold is preferred, jamming seems spewey but playing is going to cost something. That is what the game is about.

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        • #5
          I won't spoil anything, but I can assure you I didn't fold.

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          • #6
            If I 3 bet it would be a bit larger than normal since I would be out of position, around 725,000. The problem is that puts a lot of my stack in and gets close to committing me. If he calls i will jam a lot of flops so maybe jamming preflop is best. Heck I don't know. Ok, i am jamming preflop. Final answer.

            ​​​​​
            ​​

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            • #7
              This is a spot that I have run into a few times before. That tricky stack size of 25-35bb range where jamming seems to large, your out of the blinds and facing a LP raise and your hand is very solid yet you hate to go to the flop OOP because so many flops make for tough decisions. I have thought about the various routes to take which make it tough for villain.

              A lot obviously depends on the villain and their tendencies. One of the main ones is how likely are they to fold to a raise here?

              Facing a "LAG-ish" player in LP I am feeling pretty good about getting my stack in here. So any decision where I can do that AND put pressure on my opponent is the preferred route.

              Curious to hear other thoughts on this...

              I know the traditional 3-bet size here is around 700-800k, but what about a larger size?

              Say 900k - 1.2m?

              Let's say we make it 1m which makes the pot 1.275m and gives us a stack of 1.9m behind.

              If villain calls we have a pot of 2.275m and a stack that we can jam most flops with while putting a ton of pressure on the villain.

              If they jam pre we can assess the situation and go from there (most likely call as determined pre).

              Its not traditional, and yes 30% of our stack is going in pre without jamming, but it does have its upsides. For one I want to put a ton of pressure on the villain when my entire stack is going to be involved. Secondly, I do not want to play this pot OOP with a hand that will whiff a large percentage of flops - and this route helps to avoid that. Third this looks super strong and we may even get a better hand to fold.

              It also has it's downsides but in this specific situation there is no perfect answer. So I guess we are looking for the answer that has the least amount of downside.

              Just a thought.
              Last edited by JredA; 07-13-2017, 02:00 PM.

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              • #8
                What did Jonathan say to do? Tough spot that I have found myself in before as well.

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                • #9
                  Jonathan thought this was a shove. I called, but in retrospect think a jam was probably the right play.

                  I called because I thought that my opponent was opening a lot and that even though I was OOP I was getting such a good price that I could realize my equity. The problem is that it's difficult against an aggressive player to play this hand OOP, and I had to be fortunate to catch a good flop where I was able to call two streets and win a big pot.

                  As to shoving, there's 460K in the pot and I have about 2.8M behind. That's certainly close to the 6x pot standard I use for reshoves, and against aggressive, more experienced players (I was at a brutal table by this tournament's standards) seeing fewer flops isn't the end of the world.

                  The problem I can see with 3-betting in this particular case is that I have a tight image - I'd probably only played a handful of hands in the hour I'd been at the table. So when I raise to something like 700K, for example, and get jammed, I'm pretty sure my opponent is 4-betting with a much more linear range.

                  I hadn't been 3-betting at all, so if he 4-bets I'm in a pretty rough spot and could actually argue folding. If he calls my 3-bet, I have a weird SPR with 2.2MM behind and a pot that would be about ~1.5MM, playing OOP. If I'd been more active and thought he might 4-bet jam lighter, I could see 3-betting with the intention of calling it off being the best play.
                  Last edited by jpgiro; 07-13-2017, 09:20 PM.

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                  • #10
                    So what you are really saying is Jonathan Little and I had it right! :-) I knew I was on his level.

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                    • #11
                      I don't say this often, but I think Jonathan may not have made the best choice here. Of course shoving or calling will be profitable. Shoving 6x the pot is not standard. Shoving 6x - 10x the open size is standard.

                      If you've only been at this table for one hour, he can't have much of a read on you. In live poker, that's only about 30 hands. Unless this is the very first hand you played. But if you played 3 -5 that's about standard.

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                      • #12
                        if your comfortable playin this hand post vs aggressive villain then do it! it can have a lot of merit

                        if he is loose he will peel a lot your 3bets so your sizing is important
                        even if you are aggressive preflop player you can just flat the bb
                        you have to consider this case: if he has a pair he will get it in so u are just flipping so deep itm i dont advocate this its not worth
                        on good flops for ur defending range u can steal the pot if u play well also on flops which hit his stealing range he will attack a lot with his air and d you got AQ and get good value
                        Last edited by Fishhead; 07-16-2017, 05:48 AM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Fishhead View Post
                          if he is loose he will peel a lot your 3bets so your sizing is important ...
                          ... you have to consider this case: if he has a pair he will get it in so u are just flipping so deep itm i dont advocate this its not worth ...
                          If he was shoving only pairs, then yes this statement may be accurate, but the thing is he's not shoving only pairs. Ax hands you dominate will be in there. AJ/AT. A6s as a bluff. What about other hands in his bluff range like J8s or KTo?

                          The reality is that no, you are not just flipping if he shoves.

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                          • Fishhead
                            Fishhead commented
                            Editing a comment
                            no i didnt meant he is shoving only pairs. i meant the case where he got pairs you are just flippin and i know thats standard but standard dont neccessarily means its great.

                            sure he will shove some bluffs, if he thinks u got there an decent bluff range....so if they got no history and against a good player i would flat this prob everytime. and just do the post flop play and try to outplay my opponent on the streets with a good bb defending range.....

                            so this spot depends rly strong on the opponents tendencys imo.

                            like J8o or KT if he likes to see flops he flats the 3bet...if he is rly aggro he will shove some weak combos

                            i would rather 3bet AQo instead of AQs.
                            Last edited by Fishhead; 07-16-2017, 11:17 AM.

                        • #14
                          29 BBS seems a little big to shove here. Since the villain is a LAG, I would three bet for sure. Although I would select a smaller size such as 575-600k to see if I can induce the villain to 4 bet jam light. This also allows you to get away if you miss and the board is good for his range.

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                          • #15
                            Originally posted by jjpregler View Post
                            I don't say this often, but I think Jonathan may not have made the best choice here. Of course shoving or calling will be profitable. Shoving 6x the pot is not standard. Shoving 6x - 10x the open size is standard.

                            If you've only been at this table for one hour, he can't have much of a read on you. In live poker, that's only about 30 hands. Unless this is the very first hand you played. But if you played 3 -5 that's about standard.
                            6x pot is what I use as the top limit for shoves over an initial open. I do that rather than using open size simply because I want to account for blinds and antes, and in some of the WSOP structures you can end up with antes being a pretty large portion of the pot. I generally want to be closer to 5x as a rule, for sure.

                            While I agree that as a rule you can't have a statistical read on someone after 30 hands, my perceived image (quiet middle aged guy who's played very few hands in an hour or so) is not going to lead someone to 4-bet me light. If I was a 25-year old hoodie-wearing kid with headphones, that's different.

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