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River Decision against tough LAG

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  • River Decision against tough LAG

    Hi All, first time post here - have enjoyed reading the hand analysis!

    Playing 1/2 NL Snap Table on 888poker. 5 handed at 6 max table.

    SB/BB: 1/2
    Hero Position = BB
    Hero Stack = $200
    Villain UTG Stack = $450
    Hero Hand = Ah Qs

    Villain UTG raises to 4.50, UTG+1 calls, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero calls in BB

    3 handed to the flop

    Flop = Qd Ad 8d

    Hero bets $7.25 into $13.78 pot. UTG raises to $21.75. UTG+1 folds, Hero calls. Pot now $57.28.

    I have seen this player on the Snap tables before, and he is a pretty good aggressive player and always seems to put people in tough spots. I have seen him 3-bet the flop with hands like Q9s, pocket 4s, ATo, etc so I think his range is pretty wide. Feels like an aggressive betting line if he flopped a strong flush. He could have flopped a small flush (easily in his range, like 9-10d, etc). Since I have top 2 pair, I like that I have A and Q blockers, so absent a flush or a strong flush draw it's hard to put him on much else? Not sure leading on the flop was the right call here and something I would rarely do not being the pre-flop aggressor. My table image is fairly tight.

    Turn = 9h

    Hero checks. Villain bets $35.50, Hero calls. Pot now $126.

    The 9h doesn't change much for me. 10-J gets there, but would Villain raise a double gut shot straight draw on the flop with three flush cards on the board? Maybe. Seems a bit optimistic unless he had 10d-Jd in which case I was fair behind on the flop anyway.

    River = 9c which pairs the board.

    Hero checks. Villain bets $96.75 into a $125 pot. Hero?

    I think I am getting decent odds to call here risking $96.75 to win $221 or so. The 9c doesn't change much for me because I am thinking he was on a strong flush draw and missed or he flopped a flush and I have been crushed the whole time...So pretty binary outcomes for me. He seems capable of bluffing the river if he missed. At the same time, I'm skeptical because what does he think I have that I called a flop raise and large turn bet?

    Raising is out of the question as my hand is basically a bluff catcher because I don't get called by anything worse and only called when I am crushed. Given the betting line villain has take AA, QQ, and 88 would make sense at show down, but it's hard for him to have QQ and AA given the blockers I have?

    Maybe I am just crushed by too many hands is this is an easy fold?

  • #2
    I dunno how to assess. My impression is that given this players image, I 3 bet that flop for certain. If he has the Jd or Kd he'll represent the nuts just to test you. He may call or go over you OTF and then you can make a decision based on shoving after crossing the 3 SPR line or shut down early. This way the decision is on him and you're putting him to the test. The way you played it, if the A or Q comes down, you're not getting paid and he just makes your life miserable.

    On the river against a LAG, you're getting the right price to call. You havve to pay off a set here. He either has something else or he doesn't.
    Last edited by XBobLove; 07-08-2017, 06:13 PM.


    • #3
      You need to win this pot approx. 30% of the time to justify a call on the river.

      Villains range should include only a few hands you beat (all bluffs). However, given the board paired on the river and you checked to the Villain does increase the possibility that villain is bluffing - if Villain does have a big flush or a full house why make such a large bet that you are not likely to call (Villain is probably pretty sure you don't have a flush given your passive play after he raises your flop bet and that you did not make the full house given that you checked the river)? Given your table image and villain's large river bet his play looks like a bluff.

      So you're in a tough spot and I think you have to go with your read of this player. Would this player bluff 30% or more in this situation? If you believe so then you should call. If you believe not then you should fold.


      • #4
        I wanted to post the results. I called and he had 8-8 for a flopped set. I did think I was getting the right price to call against his range. *Shrugs*