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Venetian $200k Guarantee - Raised on the River

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  • Venetian $200k Guarantee - Raised on the River

    This hand comes from the $600 2-day $200k Guarantee that I played this weekend.

    B - 100/200
    P - SB
    H - KcJc
    S - 18k

    A middle aged Armenian LAG limps UTG. This was his first limp of the day.

    A young white male LAG makes it 650 from MP.

    CO calls. BTN calls. I call. BB calls. UTG calls.

    FLOP (3900) = 4h 6s 9h

    Checks around

    TURN (3900) = Jh

    I bet 2k. UTG calls. MP calls. Everyone else folds.

    RIVER (9900) = Jd

    I bet 5k. UTG asks to see my stack (I had about 10k behind) and he makes it 12k or 7k more to me. MP folds.

    I tank fold

    Before going into detail I am curious to get other opinions on this hand. I think the turn lead is questionable, but I am more interested if my fold on the River was correct.


  • #2
    What do you think his image of you is?

    Comment


    • #3
      Vomit spot, likely a good tourney fold as we're only beating other Jx hands. Most of his range is everything that beats you, sets that filled up, flushes and AJ.

      I qualify this by saying your read is suspect. His line given a LAG doesn't make sense. I can make a case for his river bet pushing you off a better hand or chop but not enough reliable info is provided.

      Comment


      • #4
        if in a cash game i might call , i got the feeling he got house pocket 4 pocket 6 pocket 9 and i highly think is pocket 4 or 6, the question i going to ask myself or ask you , is villain capable of bluffing in this spot while you look like you have a Jack. if villain is capable of blufiing or you think he tend to overplay his card strength i think i will have to call depend on stack size left and etc in a tourney while in cash game i also might call if i think villain capable bluffing or overplay. but if villain is a careful type player i will fold. the question i going to ask when you say villain is a lag, why would you lead out at river, i would have check call. when you tell us villain is a lag he is going to bluff you or bet in to you most of the time then i will consider him lag , if he is loose passive i will take the line like you do and i am 100% fold when he raise.

        Comment


        • #5
          6 ways with 3 to a flush on this board, I like checking turn more than betting. We have to think someone is going to take a stab on this by the turn and we should able to pick off worse hands pretty comfortably.

          River seems really close to me between betting and checking. We can get value from some worse Jx , but it might be ambitious to think hands like TT or A9 are even in the pot by the river, much less calling multi-way. That being said I still lean slightly towards betting here, but when we get raised we're really at the bottom of our range so I think folding is fine. We do want some hands we can bet-fold and this is a pretty reasonable candidate.
          Last edited by jpgiro; 06-12-2017, 03:33 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            As played, we need to get $7k to win $33,900 (or 20.6%). What is his range?

            after the flop, he likely folds most things besides 2 hearts, 44, 66, 99, another pair, maybe 3/5, 5/7, 7/8, 8/10, and bluffs. Also maybe A4, A6 and A9 as well as two broadway cards floating. Which is to say, we don't eliminate a lot if he is LAG unless he thinks you are a nit.

            after the turn, we might be able to eliminate some straight draws, overcards, and Ax because of the 3-flush on the board. But, if one of those cards is a heart, maybe stick around. Probably drop weaker pairs but strong pairs and sets stick around. Doubt he has the case J in the hole.

            river. What does his bet mean? Possibilities, from worst to best:

            1. His set is now a boat. Ugh. Would explain his value reraise.
            2. Flush. We lose. Strong flush would merit a value bet.
            3. He is sitting on a straight, which beats us. But he should likely check and not bet here; bet makes no sense with 3 hearts out there. So I say this is unlikely,
            4. Trips -- only if he has a pocket J, which is unlikely. And if so, we probably have a better kicker that plays unless he has J9 and hit his boat. So a small range, unlikely to raise your bet.
            5. Two pair -- possible. Would not expect a raise though.
            6. Pair on the board (I.e. busted draw or other cards) -- could be bluffing, although the bet is awfully small. Clearly inviting a call here.

            so I think we are basically a bluff catcher. V probably has a boat, a strong flush, or squadush.

            Will villain bluff more than 20.6% of the time here? If he went all-in, I would be more likely to think that was possible. Here, I think if V is bluffing he would not lay you such good odds.

            I fold, unless I really think this is a move and think V is bold enough to lay such tasty odds. And I am not that good of a person-reader.
            Last edited by OPK; 06-12-2017, 07:31 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by XBobLove View Post
              I qualify this by saying your read is suspect. His line given a LAG doesn't make sense. I can make a case for his river bet pushing you off a better hand or chop but not enough reliable info is provided.
              Keep in mind this is a tournament and only on the second level. So all I know about this villain is what I have seen during the first 40 min level. During the first 40 minutes this villain played a large number of pots and played them very aggressively. Could he have been on a heater? Sure, but the only info I had was that he played several hands aggressively (including one hand that involved him 7-betting). Hence my classification at the time that he was a LAG.

              As noted this is the first hand he limped.

              Comment


              • #8
                I did get some of that from your initial submission but here is the thing. Leopards don't change their stripes. He may have been hot or loose to this point but maybe he wasn't getting the action he thought he should be getting. Maybe he was getting too much action. This limp is clearly an adjustment to whatever he thinks he's getting or not getting. That's preflop. His game shoudln't have changed post mmultiway.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Bob points out why a stop-n-go may be in order. Doesn't cost much to call; either barrel the flop or check/fold depending on the flop texture.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This is certainly a tough spot, but I think I call. I imagine most sets and two pairs raise the turn, leaving mainly trips in your opponent's value raising range. Since you beat most of those, I think it is a call.
                    As for the turn, I think there is merit to both betting and checking, but I generally like a bet because numerous worse hands can easily call.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by JonathanLittle View Post
                      This is certainly a tough spot, but I think I call. I imagine most sets and two pairs raise the turn, leaving mainly trips in your opponent's value raising range. Since you beat most of those, I think it is a call.
                      As for the turn, I think there is merit to both betting and checking, but I generally like a bet because numerous worse hands can easily call.
                      But wouldn't we expect most worse Jx to be calling here rather than raising? Yes, I think some players may elect to raise with JT or QJ here, but I would often expect weak Jx hands to just call, assuming that if they raise they're rarely getting called by worse.

                      I could see calling if we had the Kh since we block flushes, but without a flush blocker folding seems ok.
                      Last edited by jpgiro; 06-19-2017, 01:58 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        This was really a sick spot.

                        Here is what happened.....

                        MP folded to the raise from UTG and I tank folded and here is why:

                        No one really mentioned the MP player that was still in the hand at the time of the small raise from UTG. And this is what compelled me to fold. I felt for a competent player to almost min raise my turn and river bet on this runout with 2 players behind him that his hand must be extremely strong.

                        Flushes and sets that filled up made up most of his range I felt.

                        During a break I talked to the MP player and he folded AJ. So UTG did not have Jx. Meaning he either made a really sick bluff or he had a monster.

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