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  • Equities

    So attached is is a screenshot of a crazy hand on Live at The Bike, I think. Amazed that after the turn the nuts only has 25% Equity. Who'd have thought that possible with only one card to come!!! I actually ran it to see if it was a Graphics error and its not, they're correct.

    What I cant work out however is how a set of 6's with 10 outs is favourite with 29% Equity and has to hit one of them to win. Where's the extra Equity of 9% or so come from when a set has 10 outs to boat or better for what is normally around 20% Equity.

  • #2
    I think some of it is from the fact that he's taking equity from the flush draw hands. If he hits a Qh, 7c, or 3c he actually counterfeits flush draws on the board. Also, there's some chop possibilities with the 54 hand that other hands don't have.

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    • #3
      Different equation. You are using the unknown cards equation where you have 10 outs among 46 unknown cards with 10/46 = 21.7%. The producers have the advantage of knowing the location of 12 more cards being held by the other players, none of which are his outs. So the equation being used is 10/34 = 29.4%
      Last edited by jjpregler; 04-19-2017, 01:35 PM.

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      • #4
        Haha. Of course. How stupid. So obvious once pointed out.The sheer amount of players and a large card removal knowing their holing. Shows how easy it is to blindly follow a rule of thumb without thinking through its methodology

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