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A5s hitting trips on the turn - pot control or 3 streets?

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  • A5s hitting trips on the turn - pot control or 3 streets?

    HAND DETAILS - $5+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players

    Position Name Stack
    MP1 752,047 (62.7 bb)
    MP2 161,920 (13.5 bb)
    MP3 Hero 363,310 (30.3 bb)
    CO 106,132 (8.8 bb)
    BTN 319,374 (26.6 bb)
    SB 208,204 (17.4 bb)
    BB 300,650 (25.1 bb)

    Blinds 6k/12k antes

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A of spades 5 of spades
    2 folds, Hero raises to 24,000, 3 folds, BB calls 12,000

    Flop: (61,000) Q of spades A of clubs 9 of clubs (2 players)

    BB checks, Hero bets 30,500, BB calls 30,500

    Turn: (122,000) A of diamonds (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    River: (122,000) 2 of diamonds (2 players)
    BB bets 62,500, Hero calls 62,500


    Opponent- 22/13. Aggression 20%. 5% 3 bet. River aggression 67% but had never cbet flop or turn. Only 55 hands.


    He leads the river and he has fairly passive stats, although after I chx turn he could be value betting kq qj or a missed draw OR an Ace I chop with, so needing 33% odds & after checking turn I´m still calling.

    1) Do you agree with my analysis?

    2) My opponent is in the BB and is fairly call happy preflop, so his range for calling my c-bet is fairly wide. I decided to check turn to keep him in the pot rather than have him fold & play pot control for the times when he has A9+.

    But, is he really folding draws or any Q to a bet and that is obviously the range I´m targeting? He is probably folding any marginal pair to a further bet on any street. I understand that missing value is a leak and I´m wondering whether this is one of those hands....

    Do you think my line should have been BET BET CALL or BET BET FOLD or as I decided to play it BET CHX CALL or if he had chx to me on the river BET CHX BET

    Hope this is not too confusing.


    Last edited by mymindisblank; 04-18-2017, 04:49 AM.

  • #2
    Once villain calls your c-bet I am ranging them as having Qx, Ax, 9x, possibly some kind of pocket pair and draws (straight and flush). Depending on what we know about villain we can determine the likely hood of them playing draws like this - if they even would.

    Betting the turn most likely gets most of this range to fold, unless they have some aggressive tendencies and jam draws in situations like this.

    With that being said, my play would be to check the turn in hopes of inducing a stab at the pot on the river from the villain.

    On the river...all the draws missed. We are beat by A9+ and chop with A2-A8 and lose to the unlikely QQ or 99. We are ahead of missed draws and qx, pocket pairs, and 9x hands.

    The reason I check the turn is to induce bluffs so I am going with my plan and calling here.
    Last edited by JredA; 04-18-2017, 04:49 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      I need to think about what hands I want to double barrel here on the turn. I think I'm going to want to bet my nut hands like AQ (6 combos), AA (1 combo), 99 (3 combos) and A9s (2 combos).

      I probably would want to be able to double barrel with my JTs and club draws, so I probably need to add some more value hands into my bluff range. So I think we need some Ax combos that we're going to bet here and some we're going to check back. I think I'm probably betting my AK and AJ combos for sure. Below that, I think checking back our weaker Ax on the turn is perfectly fine, because we're going to want some hands we can easily check-call rivers with.

      If you want to trap with some of your nut hands, then you can probably add a few more Ax hands into your betting range - like you could decide to check with AQ because that hand makes it the least likely your opponent has a Q or A that can continue. In that case, then I'd probably add maybe AT as a hand I'd lead with on the turn.
      Last edited by jpgiro; 04-18-2017, 09:44 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        On that flop I'd have check, bet, bet. For pot control/stack preservation when behind, but mostly to get value from worse hands on later streets. Same result but you are more likely to get called down on river by weaker passive players as they will often discount you hit the ace after a flop check back, who otherwise might give you credit for an ace on a river bet if you bet the flop. Especially so if another ace doesn't turn.

        As the extra ace turns and you did Cbet with eff starting stacks of 25bb I'm looking to get stacks in with a larger turn bet. With the now popular smaller standard opens to 2bb to get 25bb in without a check raise you gotta bet the turn fairly big so 2bb pf, 3bb flop, 8bb on turn, shove river for pot sized bet. Looks polarised and could easily get called by any pair if villain thinks you're capable of bluffing at a missed straight or flush draw. Very weak no pair no draw hands are folding along the way whatever you do when you bet, so I'd milk it while you can if he has something and is the type to look you up at times.

        I usually check that flop but perhaps with this stack size I hink a bet is better due to the above dynamic.I get stacked? That's life.

        Also if this is like a Stars or big field Tournament at this level I wouldn't ever consider balance, as villain almost never has an history, plus a tiny fraction of $5 Tournament players are aware of balance and application and if they are they likely wont have the history to know what you'd do in each situation.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by biju View Post
          On that flop I'd have check, bet, bet. For pot control/stack preservation when behind, but mostly to get value from worse hands on later streets. Same result but you are more likely to get called down on river by weaker passive players as they will often discount you hit the ace after a flop check back, who otherwise might give you credit for an ace on a river bet if you bet the flop. Especially so if another ace doesn't turn.

          As the extra ace turns and you did Cbet with eff starting stacks of 25bb I'm looking to get stacks in with a larger turn bet. With the now popular smaller standard opens to 2bb to get 25bb in without a check raise you gotta bet the turn fairly big so 2bb pf, 3bb flop, 8bb on turn, shove river for pot sized bet. Looks polarised and could easily get called by any pair if villain thinks you're capable of bluffing at a missed straight or flush draw. Very weak no pair no draw hands are folding along the way whatever you do when you bet, so I'd milk it while you can if he has something and is the type to look you up at times.

          I usually check that flop but perhaps with this stack size I hink a bet is better due to the above dynamic.I get stacked? That's life.

          Also if this is like a Stars or big field Tournament at this level I wouldn't ever consider balance, as villain almost never has an history, plus a tiny fraction of $5 Tournament players are aware of balance and application and if they are they likely wont have the history to know what you'd do in each situation.
          I think checking flop is fine as well. Bigger point is that our hand is strong, but not strong enough to get three streets of value. Can also accept argument that we want to try to figure out how to get stacks in once we flop top pair due to stack depth.

          However, even at $5 tournaments I still think we need to be balanced until proven otherwise. It's a mistake to make broad generalizations about a player pool based on stakes, IMO.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jpgiro View Post

            ......However, even at $5 tournaments I still think we need to be balanced until proven otherwise. It's a mistake to make broad generalizations about a player pool based on stakes, IMO.
            I'm the opposite. I'm not too concerned with balancing my range until its proven I need to be. Sorry but poker is full of broad generlisations until proven different. On Stars you get bounced around tables for some weird reason I've never got to the bottom of - esp if you win a big pot, boom...... table change. If you're in a Bigger11 or Sunday Storm there can be multiples of 10k people. I use a HUD and I've almost never got history on a player right up to Sun Milly level. So its current at the table history most of the time. If you do stay at a table for a long time then sure then you get maybe 200 hands or so, which is only a couple of handfuls of post flop hands to determine their tendencies. Lip service for me. I try (emphasis) to play good Solid fundamental poker and usetiming and bet sizing reads that I feel are better info to exploit post flop play.

            I also think players like jpgiro are very very few and far between in my experience. Plus its very easy to work out who are regs and you can look em up on OPR if not sure how good they are and be sure.
            Last edited by biju; 04-18-2017, 01:53 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Call Call Lead with bad players is commonly a monster hand. Against better players it's polarized (and the optimal way yo play). Given we're playing a bad A hand on a flop texture that some significant percentage of the time we're beat and another significant percentage someone is drawing, I'm pot controlling.

              Having the mindset of two streets, I don't think it matters which two. The issue will then be the river if we go bet, bet, do we payoff a river lead bet?

              I really can't see a bluff on this runout. if the turn was the case A, that's a bad beat, if villain hit a set early, also unfortunate. What else is out there? The bet size says value and too small to put us to the test.
              Last edited by XBobLove; 04-18-2017, 03:27 PM.

              Comment


              • Paul Khoo
                Paul Khoo commented
                Editing a comment
                but do not forget bad player tend to over value their hand and they will thought certain hand is stronger then actual strength

            • #8
              Originally posted by biju View Post

              I'm the opposite. I'm not too concerned with balancing my range until its proven I need to be. Sorry but poker is full of broad generlisations until proven different. On Stars you get bounced around tables for some weird reason I've never got to the bottom of - esp if you win a big pot, boom...... table change. If you're in a Bigger11 or Sunday Storm there can be multiples of 10k people. I use a HUD and I've almost never got history on a player right up to Sun Milly level. So its current at the table history most of the time. If you do stay at a table for a long time then sure then you get maybe 200 hands or so, which is only a couple of handfuls of post flop hands to determine their tendencies. Lip service for me. I try (emphasis) to play good Solid fundamental poker and usetiming and bet sizing reads that I feel are better info to exploit post flop play.

              I also think players like jpgiro are very very few and far between in my experience. Plus its very easy to work out who are regs and you can look em up on OPR if not sure how good they are and be sure.
              That's fair to an extent. I don't play that much online (certainly can't play on Stars) so I can't say how good or bad players are. But my general rule, especially when I play live, is to assume players are competent unless I know otherwise.

              For example, at my local casino, I probably have good reads on 75% of the regular player pool. Some of those players are reasonably good and against them I will generally play a balanced strat. Some of them have weaknesses I will try to exploit, either by overfolding to the nitty old guys or relentlessly value betting loose passives.

              As I noted in another thread - if I do think a player isn't playing at least a level 2 (i.e., only playing his or her two cards and not caring what hands I might have) then I will generally ditch balance in favor of just playing solid ranges and trying to get paid off with my strong hands.

              Comment


              • #9
                Yeah. Live and Online are like different game almost, esp if live you play in the same place against the same people most of the time. If you have a read on 75% of the field the better players do too, so balance then is a huge factor or you'll be too easy to play against. Big field online in my opinion much less so unless a full on grinder for a long time, especially against recreational players.

                Comment


                • #10
                  I feel its quite an important concept or point for players to understand the differences - but apologies as I kinda derailed the thread.

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Hi Bijiu, i think your play is fine and good and your reasoning is good. the question you have to ask yourself are you willing to get your whole stack in with this board with this hand and with this stat. if you are willing its ok to bet 3 street , or even bet bet call. i will choose a better hand with better kicker to bet 3 street then using Ace with small kicker, i need to have some checking range that is strong enough to bluff catch. but if you think villain is not bluffing you need to ask yourself will he overvalue his hand. some player having trips with low kicker he is wiling to go all in with you thinking he has the best hand but he never think those that can call his all in most likely also have trips with better kicker or better hands. but that is base on deep stack situation. if you stack is too short , sometime its doesn't matter what when you have certain hands or have reasonable strong hand you can go all the way and value

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Even at the $5 games you get some guys from the Ukraine or Russia who are excellent. They only play upto $22 games but are crushing them. Against these guys I need to balance as best I can, but against the rest, I generally try to exploit any weaknesses they have.

                      I wasn´t too sure about this guy. The fact he didn´t c-bet flop or turn over 55 hands led me to believe his line was value but at the same time only A2/A9/A10/AJ had me beat., assuming that generally he would 3bet pre with AQ AK, with his stack of 25bb. If I was deeper stacked 2 streets is fine & the street I bet player dependant and shorter stacked 18bb I´m def getting it all in.

                      With 25bb eff and my stack of 30bb I just felt I would be left with a playable 18bb (ish) and my opponent prob wouldn´t pay me 3 streets with a Q & as I chopped with A3/4/5/6/7/8 anyway that I would take the prudent route. I just wasn´t sure whether I was being too cautious.

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