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  • Options with AK?

    $175 Weekly Casino Tournament

    40 left. 13 get paid.

    B - 800/1600 + 200
    P - BTN
    S - 38k
    H - AsKs

    EP raises to 4k off a stack of 40k. A decent player who does not get out of line.

    Action folds to me.

    What is your play here?

  • #2
    Assuming we're 10-handed, there's 8400 in the pot and we have 38K behind. That's kind of in the sweet spot of 4-5 times pot that makes sense for a 3-bet rejam.

    Unless there was some dynamic in play I'm not sure what other options make sense. I don't think flatting is an option at all. I guess I could maybe get behind 3-betting to something like 10-11K to induce a jam, assuming I'd play other nut hands and a few bluffs that way. Either way at 24BB I'm absolutely trying to get my stack in with AK here.
    Last edited by jpgiro; 04-16-2017, 12:09 PM.

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    • Paul Khoo
      Paul Khoo commented
      Editing a comment
      i am not in rush to go into flipping mode. but 3 bet jam is really a good option

  • #3
    Against an EP player who doesn't get out of line and considering the awkward stack sizes, the landscape gives me pause. Jamming is a viable option, totally ok with that. I probably don't do that though here's why and my line.

    So his range is pairs, which we flip with except AA and KK or AX which dominate up. If the flop comes Axx, we'll more often than not win a decent pot. If the flop comes Xxx, we're in a way ahead way behind situation where we can play pot control in position. Since this is a tourney, staying alive is paramount so anyone who follows me knows, I always avoid flipping coins looking for an edge. We have that edge on the flop, not pre.

    This way may allow the blinds in but given we're suited, I don't care. No information was given about the players in the blind so we have the option of squeezing the Xxx flop.

    Consequently, I flat and see a flop.
    Last edited by XBobLove; 04-16-2017, 01:11 PM.

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    • #4
      in a cash game i will lean toward 3 bet , while in tourney i will lean towards 3 bet jam or flat call., when i 3 bet jam i want all hand worst then JJ to fold , i think at the situation i would lean towards flatting more. why ? with such a premium hand i flat to hide my strength of the hand plus with suited hand i dont mind playing muti way pot . in position i will be flatting alot of my hand i need to balance some of the time with AKs. lets say flop open A xx , villain barrel i call villain check i can bet . i am not giving any information out to villain , even the flop open with flush draw board for us we are at a very good spot to play flush draw with two over, we can play it aggressively or passively at our control because we have good position . My tourney playing style will be alot like Daniel Neg, small ball playing style so i am flatting alot .

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      • #5
        Originally posted by XBobLove View Post
        So his range is pairs, which we flip with except AA and KK or AX which dominate up. If the flop comes Axx, we'll more often than not win a decent pot. If the flop comes Xxx, we're in a way ahead way behind situation where we can play pot control in position. Since this is a tourney, staying alive is paramount so anyone who follows me knows, I always avoid flipping coins looking for an edge. We have that edge on the flop, not pre.
        Playing devils advocate here....

        This comment is assuming we jam AND villain calls off his entire range. But does someone who has not gotten out of line call here with 44-88. Even a hand such as 99 and TT has a very tough decision if we jam. If they follow your logic I am getting all pairs JJ and below to probably fold because they are probably weighting me towards overs and want to avoid flipping and are looking for an edge.

        Comment


        • XBobLove
          XBobLove commented
          Editing a comment
          That's not devils advocate, that's part of the case for jamming, and that's fine.

      • #6
        Originally posted by JredA View Post

        Playing devils advocate here....

        This comment is assuming we jam AND villain calls off his entire range. But does someone who has not gotten out of line call here with 44-88. Even a hand such as 99 and TT has a very tough decision if we jam. If they follow your logic I am getting all pairs JJ and below to probably fold because they are probably weighting me towards overs and want to avoid flipping and are looking for an edge.
        We should get a decent amount of our opponent's range to fold here, but I also want to jam in this spot because I want to be able to rejam with worse hands. If I flat AKs what does it say if I decide to jam?

        I just think with 24BB we need to be ok with getting it in with a top 3% hand and will have to live with getting stacked every once in a while. If we were like 50-60BB deep then I could see some different options being viable.



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        • #7
          Here were my actions and why:

          I guess I should clarify what I mean by "does not get out of line". By this I mean he is playing for the most part by the book. Opening respectable ranges, rarely - if ever - firing multi-street bluffs, having an average c-bet %, etc.

          With that being said, I belive an EP range from someone like this would be around 10-14% give or take a few %'s.

          Something like:
          Click image for larger version

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          After thinking about his range I wanted to weigh my options:

          I obviously ruled out folding.

          Calling has some merit. However, at this stack depth and stage of the tournament I really did not want to play a hand in the top 3% passively and rely on a favorable flop. If I called I thought there was a good chance someone - perhaps 2 - would call in the blinds making this a multi-way pot. The pot would stand somewhere around 16-20k and the stack to pot ratios would be very short heading to the flop, leaving little wiggle room for play. I would hate to face a c-bet on a somewhat dry flop like T 8 4 when I could be ahead. So many flops put me in a tough situation at these depths.

          Raising seemed like the best option.

          But how much?

          I could go small 8-10k, hoping to induce a jam, but this player I think only jams with the top portion of his range. Maybe something like TT+. This would give me a tough decision if he did jam.

          I guess we could argue that raising small and folding to a jam could be an option, but do we really want to fold a top 3% hand after risking 25%+ of our stack at these stack depths?

          Another negative is that a raise here is close to committing 30% of my stack. I often use this guideline as a way to measure if I could jam. A small raise may keep a large portion of his range in the hand and again set up a very small SPR post flop.

          How about jamming?

          I like to use Jonathan's guideline of 7x -10x openers raise size or 3-5x pot for a measuring stick for jamming. And this certainly fits the bill.

          Jamming here puts the villain in a very tough spot for basically his tournament life and I believe he would fold around 70% of this range (hands in blue). I think it often gets better hands to fold. I even think TT may fold, but let's keep those in the calling range for villain.

          So 70% of the time I will win the 8200 in the pot (9 handed).

          Roughly 30% of the time he calls and if this is the case I am up against a range that looks like TT+, AQs+ and AKo. In this scenario I am getting about 45% equity. AQs is debatable so I split AQo and AQs with folding and calling.

          So roughly 16% of the time I am getting called and losing my stack or 38k.

          13.5% of the time I get called and more than double up (84k) setting myself up for a possible deep run.

          So EV = (.7 x 8200) + (.162 x -38,000) + (.135 x (84,000-38,000) = +5794 (3.6bb)

          So I decided to Jam.

          I am fairly new to using math like this when reviewing hands, so please let me know of any errors or areas to improve the thinking process.
          Last edited by JredA; 04-17-2017, 02:51 PM. Reason: Fixed math mistake

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          • Paul Khoo
            Paul Khoo commented
            Editing a comment
            If i am not wrong your (.135 x 84,000) is wrong figure, should be (.135 x (84,000-38,000))

        • #8
          Thanks Paul. I corrected it.
          Last edited by JredA; 04-17-2017, 02:51 PM.

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          • #9
            Firstly I think the maths you have just done proves the jam is the best bet. I don't think it's close.

            One of the things I have realised in my "poker problem" thread- and will discuss more deeply there- is we need to go into poker games with these kind of calculations firmly embedded. Not to try and do them on the fly. Thanks for your input there. We need these ranges embedded in our unconscious competence. Of course, that is what you are working on here.

            However, since that's not the case already for me certainly!!, I feel there is a reasonable logic you can use to guide you through this decision in the game without crunching numbers at the table.

            His range can be basically split into 2 sections- pairs and high cards.

            I know when I am in this spot, one thought that always goes through my mind is "Do I want to flip for my tournament life if he has a pair". This is a false argument. The reason is we are already assuming he has called with the pair, and ignore the fold equity. Looking at your "reasonable) range, he can't call with 50% of his pairs. We can also know that AA and KK are the least likely pairs he can have, since you have blockers to both, but lets just ignore those, since we know we are in terrible shape but it's a very small number of combos (6/166 if you are interested!) (and if they have AA/KK your flush/straight draws are all clean, so it's easy to out draw them!!)

            Sorry- I drifted into the maths there. But the point I am getting to is it's not a flip if he has a pair. To lose the pot against a pair you have to lose a flip first that he calls, and then a second flip once he calls. losing flip+flip = 25%!

            Against his non paired hands you are in wonderful shape with AQ, and once again it is very hard for him to have AK- which you chop 99% and can ignore (but he is far less likely to have AK than AQ due to blockers). So again you are in very good shape.

            What I am attempting to do is build a "non-maths work around" here for people that don't have the maths down pat. Having that clear is by far the superior decision making basis. However by taking the false "I'm flipping against a pair" logic out of the equation with AK, and holding the fold equity, we are in a much stronger position than the guy with JJ who KNOWS he is flipping at best against any kind of value bet.

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