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AA In The BB

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  • AA In The BB

    $175 Weekly Live Casino Tournament

    B = 250/500 + 75
    P = BB
    S = 26k
    H = AhAc

    A very loose passive player limps UTG.

    A solid TAG (25k) raises to 1200 from the BTN.

    I have a LAG image and make it 3300 from the BB. UTG folds. The TAG calls on the BTN.

    Flop (8100) = Kh Qc 8h

    I 4000. BTN raises to 10k leaving around 11k behind.

    What is your play and plan if you continue?

  • #2
    I guess the question here is whether we think the button is bluffing very often here, and if so, with what?

    The button's value range here is primarily going to be KQ (9 combos), 88 (3 combos), and maybe some random QQ or KK that he elected to slowplay pre. I don't see a solid TAG ever having AK here as that hand either 4-bets pre or if they do flat probably just calls our c-bet. I don't see worse top pair or second pair hands raising here.

    So against the value raising range we're probably about 25%, so we're not quite getting the right direct price to call.

    However, our opponent, if they're a solid TAG, is going to have some bluffs here. It isn't ideal we have the Ah because we block nut flush draws, and the Q on the board makes it less likely our opponent does this with a Qh in their hand. But they can have JT (possibly even JTo), and maybe some hands like Jh9h or Th9h where they might turn a combo draw into a bluff.

    If we mix in those hands this becomes a spot where we can continue, and then the question is whether we call or jam.

    If we call, we create a situation where there's 28K in the pot and 11K to play for. I could conceive of flatting with the idea that I give up on any card other than a heart, an A or an 8.

    However if we jam, I think we will likely be no worse than 30% when we get called, assuming we get called with some flush draws and combo draws along with our opponent's value hands. If that's the case, we should have a profitable shove. if our opponent overfolds, then all the better.

    Last edited by jpgiro; 04-14-2017, 12:08 PM.


    • #3
      If the information here is correct, this is a fold. You're beat.

      I agree with the comment but add, continuing depends on if villains is capable of bluffing on boards that favor your range.


      • #4
        I am fine with your play, although I may make it a bit larger before the flop. Once raised on this flop somewhat large such that your opponent is unlikely to fold to an all-in, I would go all-in. While you lose to the obvious hands, it is too likely that your opponent has a draw or is overplaying a marginal top pair. If you know he will only raise with AK+ and no draws, then you have an easy fold.