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Good spot to semi-bluff or just donking off my stack

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  • Good spot to semi-bluff or just donking off my stack

    Looking for some feedback on the best stack sizes and situations to put a tournament life on the line on a semi-bluff. I am finding that in the middle stages of mutli-day tournaments, the table dynamics are changing so frequently with players busting out and new players coming in with varying stack sizes that I may be picking the wrong spots.

    This was from a 1k buy-in at Seneca Niagara yesterday.

    187 started the day, 60 left. Avg stack about 100k

    Me 56k
    villain 85k

    300/1000/2000

    I have been in the same seat since the start of the tournament. There has been a crazy amount of limping from most of the players who have been at the table for a while. I have been making a point to try to eliminate limping from my game except in certain rare situation where I have a strong read on someone. I have also tried to identify good spots to 3-bet in position but haven't been able to pick up too many hands where I wasn't concerned about a 4 bet behind me.

    Villain moved the the table an hour or so before this hand and has lost about 30% of his stack but has joined right in on the limping from all positions.

    In this hand, villain limps from utg + 1. MP player also limps. I have Kh Qh in the small blind. I considered a raise to 10k but the dynamic has been that the limpers are calling alot of raises pre-flop and I could see myself oop in a bloated pot multi-way with a tough decision on most flops so I just call and the BB checks.

    Flop 2h 6d 8h

    Villain leads for 5.5k. MP folds. I 3 bet to 18.5k with 35.4k behind.

    BB fold and villain thinks a long minute before calling.

    I am putting his range at marginal made hands, some straight draws and possible hands like 99 or 1010. I think anything stronger than this he would have 4 bet shoved the flop.

    Turn is 4d.

    I shove. He tanks fro 3-4 minutes and calls with 3h 4h for middle pair and the same flush draw giving me 13 outs on the river which I miss.

    So, am I just unlucky that he paired his 4 on the turn assuming he would have folded the naked flush draw to the river shove of is this play with this stack just a big mistake?

    Thanks in advance for the feedback.

  • #2
    This limping when the blinds get big is a good topic. At one time a limp in the later stages meant AA, but players have started to capitalise on this by limping with a lot of 86s type hands. So if you see a player limp more than once, just assume he doesn't have AA, and if he doesn't have AA, you can be very sure he doesn't have JJ.

    Some short stack players will limp with 88. If there are a whole bunch of limpers they play for set value. If there is a raise then they get it in against the raise. They may even be intending to do this with 76s. Bear in mind that 76s is 23% against AA, while 77 is 20%.

    So limpers could be limping with 76s, 77, JJ, AK or AA.

    So generally you should assume a limp is a very wide range.

    I think you should raise to 10k from the small blind. If the limper shoves on you, then the usual considerations of his stack size, your equity against a range come into play.

    When you raise he might call and slow play AA, but this is a tiny part of his range.

    When you raise with KhQh, is he going to call with 3h4h. Maybe, but if he does, you have huge equity against him. He is not often going to get such an advantageous flop.

    I can understand your reluctance to raise OOP, but you do have a standard hand to raise from the blinds.

    So to answer your question, yes he got a one in a thousand flop, and an even better turn, but you should have charged him to get to the flop.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 04-09-2017, 04:12 PM.

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    • #3
      KQ is always a raise or fold hand. I will fold it here because 1) it's extremely difficult hand to play, 2) you have to play it OOP, 3) limping gives you no information, and 4) You're not afraid of bloated pots with suited connectors but raising to isolate gives life to you flop pairs when you have them.

      Now all that said limping here getting huge odds is the best of the worst plays with KQ and, jumping ahead, you now know why limping is sub optimal, it let's hands like 34s into the game. I could easily fold on this flop. The line OTF is good by the book flush draw play. You're certainly not repping an over pair or it should have raised pre. Maybe a set which case villains flush draw is live. He probably gave you 2 pair best hand, which makes sense given your line.

      99 or TT you say? Maybe. I read him for AX single paired hand likely holding a blocker. When he shows up with 34 here, there's a lot of other junk in that range as well.

      So now we get to the big mistake, and this is a mental one. You limp pre to not bloat the pot. Check raise the pot so that villain now has a 1 SPR pot going forward where any bet moving forward is likely get called on any blank turn and river card. "You keep using that word (bloat the pot), I do not think it means what you think it means" Inigo Montoya. Sounds to me like analysis rationalization to justify cute play.

      Your move was to jam the flop or fold but to be consistent with your preflop logic, check call.
      Last edited by XBobLove; 04-09-2017, 04:25 PM.

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      • #4
        It was KQs.

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        • XBobLove
          XBobLove commented
          Editing a comment
          I know. What the range chart says, what the equity calcs to etc are conventional wisdom. I reject it, it's a lousy hand on par with JJ.

      • #5
        What I meant by not bloating the pot was that based on the dynamic of the table, if i raised to 10k, i may take the pot down but I also may have gotten called in all 3 spots. If we have a 42.4k pot I give myself alot less fold equity if there is a flop that favors me. By limping, although i understand the downside, the pot is 10.4k pre-flop and I think I give myself alot more opportunity to semi-bluff successfully. I think that if he doesnt pair his 4 on the turn, he folds to the river shove which was 35.4k into a pot of 47.4k. To shove the 54 k into 15.9k after his flop bet is only going to get called by a better hand isnt it?

        BTW, I obviously have a ton to learn and really appreciate the feedback. I have never thought through the game at this level.

        I do think that I do a pretty good job of assessing the opposition and the table dynamics and usually pick my spots pretty and i am sure you will agree sometimes flies in the face of optima game strategy.

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        • #6
          I get that but the mistake is still the same. In technical terms it's called pot geometry and it's complex. If you bet X the pot will be Y your SPR is A but the effective villain stack is B. With so many callers, then take all these numbers and start doing algebra.

          That realization is absent in your presentation.

          Your line was fine, just not logical. These are mental errors.

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          • #7
            So for someone making this type of error and not understanding exactly why it is an error what would be the best source to study to identify and understand this type of error? I am spending time reading Jonathan's book and taking his quizzes and doing old homework assignments in the poker coaching site but what would you recommend?

            Thanks

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            • #8
              Bob, are you seriously suggesting folding KQs in SB in a limped pot. In one of your recent posts you raised from the blinds with 33. And JJ is a lousy hand?

              DB, you have a great hand, when you raise you want callers, the more the better. On this flop you have a huge amount of equity. When you raise, get callers, and get this flop, how you play this flop is a matter for discussion. But with 28bb I would be playing for stacks. So I would bet the flop and get the rest in on the turn - however maybe JJ could tell us the standard line.
              Last edited by Patrick O; 04-09-2017, 11:09 PM.

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              • #9
                Yes. This is Jonathans site so my opinion is the same as yours a voice in the peanut gallery. My game works for me and there are things that I do that is contrary to conventional wisdom. KQ suited or not is a hand that I will only lead bet in MP-Button and otherwise drop quickly. Playing KQ OOP isn't in my game.

                Comment


                • #10
                  One suggestion is to make sure you understand the difference between open limping and limping behind open limpers. It is perfectly acceptable to limp behind other limpers if situations present themselves, you are getting the right odds, etc.

                  I completely understand your concerns with raising and bloating the pot. I see this often at the stakes I play and I try to pay close attention to what the threshold is to get folds from open limpers.

                  In this case you have a strong hand in the SB with a somewhat tricky stack size. When it folds to you the pot has 10k and you have 55k behind. My normal raise here would be 8-10k, and I agree with you about raising and getting two callers and facing some tough decisions. Making this raise, and getting one caller means you have a pot around 30k with 40k or so behind. You could check/fold non-favorable flops and fire on high equity flops hoping to get a fold or setting up a turn jam. But again, you may be going multi-way, which is not ideal at this stack size.

                  If I have a solid read that the villain you mention in EP has been limping with a wide range I would consider a shove here pre. I tend to look at the pot to stack ratio to determine how much is too much to shove. Here the pot has 10k and you have 55k behind, so a 5.5-1 ratio. Anything between 3-5 is what I think is a decent shove size with 7 being the max. The second caller has such a wide range and this play will work a very high percentage of the time and it will add close to 20% to your stack. I would do the same with 88-QQ and AK. Even if you get called here by hands such as 88-TT you have a ton of equity to make a nice double up.

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                  • #11
                    I understand Jred about the limping. I am trying to greatly reduce my instances where I open limp unless I see an opportunity with stacks behind me that might make a mistake. I do not have an aversion to limping behind other limpers if my hand may flop well or if I think I can outplay the limper post flop/

                    I would imagine most of you have more experience than I do in these situations but I will almost never shove 28bb to pick up 4 or 5 bb. i prefer to pick a spot when I am in a position to isolate what I perceive as a weaker player to build my stack. In a spot like this, i am looking to take a flop cheaply multiway hoping to flop a premium hand or one where I have enough equity to get it in with some amount of fold equity. I have seen a huge trend lately towards limping with hands like AK and AQ and thought I would only get called by hands crushing mine preflop. Once I flopped a FD with the 2 overs, I checked hoping for pretty much exactly what happened. When villain called my flop raise, the pot was 47.4k and I had 35.4k behind. i put him on a marginal made hand that was hoping I would check the river. I think if he didnt have the pair to go with the combo draw giving him the extra outs, he would have laid it down.

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Yes, I am rarely, rarely open limping. Of course there are always exceptions, but I find them rare.

                      I don't think there is anything wrong with calling and seeing a flop here. I think there are merits for calling and raising. I am not a fan of folding here though, I think our hand is simply too strong and at minimum you are getting a fantastic price to call. I also think our hand is too strong to play passively multi-way and it is one of those tricky stack sizes that makes raising OOP a tricky scenario.

                      I would lean towards a call if I was unsure of the limpers, etc. However, you describe the table as very limp happy leading me to believe my hand is stronger than their limping range. This is a situation where I am looking to add to my stack in a tournament. And since I don't like the tricky stack size and possibility of going multi-way post flop and even though you are risking 27bb to win 5bb, I look at it as a way to add 20% of my stack when it has a very high % chance of working.

                      Even if the worst case scenario presents itself.....you are called by a stronger hand, their actions leading up to this point and overall ranges probably provide us with a decent amount of equity to double up a large majority of the time.
                      Last edited by JredA; 04-10-2017, 10:21 AM.

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                      • #13
                        Makes sense. thanks

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