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More math: Taking the math when your read is you're a dog

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  • More math: Taking the math when your read is you're a dog

    This is an offshoot thread when to my post about math.

    Game 2/2/3 300 max
    Image: Splashy
    Hero 80
    Hand 9To
    Position SB

    Villain 1 Skilled Asian Young Gun
    Position BB
    Stack 250
    Image is good TAG. Has maintained good discipline, aggressive bets and has been squeezing in good places. He's playing a balanced game. Few leaks.

    Villain 2 Total Fish
    Position MP
    Stack 125
    Limping too much, not raising enough when he does raise. Making every mistake possible. Limp raised a couple times showing down premiums, holding one and losing the other in a bad spot.

    Villain 3 Aggro donk
    Position CO
    Stack 175
    He's my friends 21yo nephew (frien in hijack not a factor). Kid is giving us a poker seminar and making a show of it. A seminar on what i'm not quite sure of at this point in the evening. Both my friend and his nephew are trust funders related to owners of an NFL team. Both have more money than brains and they are both smarter than me and I'm pretty damn smart.

    This was my busto hand 2 days prior to the last post.

    UTG folds
    UTG +1 (I'm this guy's ATM this day, he kept hitting trips to my overs on 9 high rainbow flops) leads 11.
    One fold to V1 who flats.
    Freind limps
    V2 limps
    Button limps
    I limp
    BB jams!!!!
    Folds to V2 who jams!!!
    Folds to V3 who jams!!!

    So it folds to me and there is little chance that my hand is any good.
    V1 I read as a squeeze so his range is filled with AXs and premiums.
    V2 is the guy who I read as most likely having 'it'. His range is also fileld with AXo, KX, and pairs.
    V3 is likely the widest as the aggro donk. I didn't know.

    Given the ranges, I guessed I was at least live and getting almost 5:1, I shrugged and called.

    How you you guys look at this?
    Last edited by XBobLove; 04-08-2017, 05:12 PM.

  • #2
    No amount of scientific analysis is going to help you here. You have a lousy hand even getting 5 to 1. If their ranges are wide then they includes A9, K9, AT, KT and you are a dog. If their ranges are narrow they includes TT - AA and you are still a dog. Worse still you could be up against KT, A9, JJ.

    How do you calculate 5 to 1, it looks closer to 3 to 1 to me.

    Even against a single opponent with X9 or XT you are 3 to 1 dog.

    To call here you have to hope you are against 55, 66, AK (still 3 to 1 dog) or AK, AQ, KQ or similar combinations. You are 3 to 1 dog against almost any combination you can think of.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 04-08-2017, 09:45 PM.


    • XBobLove
      XBobLove commented
      Editing a comment
      More like 4.2 => 6x11 + 69x4:80. 66+276:80 342:80 => 4.2:1

  • #3
    Hi bob , this hand i think you really play it wrongly and you are in the mood to gambler like my usually villain , if you have a small pocket pair i dont even think the maths support us to call, if you have a middle pair maybe its a marginal call.
    9To min i also looking at 1:20 - 1 :30 then i might be calling . if i am calling i am calling with implied odd so 1:20 or 1:30 is not impossible
    a small pocket pair i am min looking at 1 :8 return to call a shove over there
    9To or suited even you hit a T or 9 you might not be good

    i try to plug in the range into equilab but the software need to run too long for muti way pot so i give up.
    Equity Win Tie
    UTG+1 13.24% 12.64% 0.60% A5s
    MP1 24.07% 23.47% 0.60% AKo
    MP3 34.93% 34.89% 0.03% QQ
    SB 11.63% 11.60% 0.03% T9o
    BB 16.14% 16.10% 0.03% 77
    i plug in random cards you also need around 1:10 pot odds

    i give another better situation for you
    Equity Win Tie
    UTG+1 14.00% 13.41% 0.58% A5s
    MP1 24.73% 24.14% 0.58% AKo
    MP3 25.15% 25.12% 0.03% QJs
    SB 16.08% 16.05% 0.03% T9o
    BB 20.05% 20.03% 0.03% 77
    you still need a 1:6.5 to make this call to break even , you only have 16.05% to run out having the best hand.

    i give you a better situation
    Equity Win Tie
    UTG+1 15.14% 14.66% 0.47% A5s
    MP1 24.20% 23.73% 0.47% AKo
    MP3 14.20% 13.73% 0.47% AJo
    SB 21.80% 21.77% 0.04% T9o
    BB 24.66% 24.62% 0.04% Q8s
    yah you having a 21.77% to run out as best hand yah you have 1:5 or what is a break even call with 3 person having the Ace to block each other for you to have that kind of advantage and no one has any pair

    if someone has a ten that dominate you
    Equity Win Tie
    UTG+1 14.48% 13.92% 0.55% A5s
    MP1 25.77% 25.22% 0.55% AKo
    MP3 34.79% 34.74% 0.05% QQ
    SB 10.89% 10.35% 0.55% T9o
    BB 14.07% 13.52% 0.55% JTs


    • #4

      MP 23.86% { TT-22, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo }
      CO 24.69% { TT-22, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-AJo }
      SB 21.77% { T9o }
      BB 29.67% { 77+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KJs+, QJs, T7s, 97s-96s, 86s-85s, 75s-74s, 64s, AJo+, KQo }


      • #5
        In a cash game, when you are getting the right pot odds for your money, yes you should call, even though you are most likely losing. But I find in spots like this, players seriously over estimate their equity in the pot. As I show above against just decent hands, you are not getting enough to call. If this should be the hands that the action indicates, then your hand is in serious trouble.

        So the answer is yes, when you get the right odds to call you call, but no, in my opinion, this is a hand where you are not getting the right price to call with such a weak hand.


        • #6
          So here are the hands and ranges I assigned.

          MP: AX, KX, pairs (all)
          CO: The entire deck. (ok-60%)
          SB: 9To
          BB: AX

          Flop 98J

          CO turns over Qc9c
          I show the 9

          Turn K
          River 3

          BB/MP muck

          CO wins
          Last edited by XBobLove; 04-11-2017, 09:59 PM.