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3Bet Shove, fold or call 77 with 19 BB?

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  • 3Bet Shove, fold or call 77 with 19 BB?

    Midway through a $130 tournament. 84 entries. 9 pay. About 40 players left. Structure is fast and average stack size is probably around 30 BB.

    UTG, a TAG/LAG (changes range up from time to time but always bets aggressively) who will, in this position, open any pair, most suited A-x, A-10+ offsuit, KQo, maybe suited connectors 8 and higher, sometimes A-9o or KJo, raises to 3.5 BB. This is in the zone of standard bet sizing for him, but on the larger side of his bet sizing zone. He has about 25 BB behind after the bet.

    Action folds to me in MP. I look down at 77 with 19 BB. I have not shown down any silly hands, and have knocked out three players so far with nuttish hands that the table has seen. There have, however, been a number of dumb all-in/call/call plays at this table involving other players. It is "very recreational" other than the UTG raiser.

    Behind me are four shorter stacks, and one larger stack. SB is larger stack. No one left to act is crazy, although SB is probably the loosest caller.

    Shove, fold, or call?


  • #2
    His betting sizing, although in the normal range for him, is suspicious. Probably a hand like 99 that he would just prefer to pick up the blinds with.

    19bb is a bit tricky, I don't think you have much fold equity, because he is not raising this size with A9o, KJo. He is probably planning to call a shove from a shorter stack, the question is what would he fold to a 19bb shove, would he call with 88. With 19bb you should be happy to flip with AK.

    I would call. A number of things could happen.

    No more callers, 77 is not so bad to play IP unimproved, with nobody acting after you.

    A cascade of callers and no shove, in this case you play for set value.

    A shove by a player after you, depending on your odds you might call or fold. If I was getting 2 to 1, I would call, at this stage you can't be too picky about equity versus ranges.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 04-08-2017, 02:26 AM.

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    • #3
      I could overshove here without breaking a sweat in most fast format tournaments. Not my first choice but in these tourney's you only get so many opporunities. If you pass here, you'll need a big hand or the god will have to grace your connectors to move on.

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      • #4
        99 is usually an insta shove here. 77 is closer and I may fold this. But I am never calling here. I am shove/fold with middle pairs here. Against an EP range of a TAG it just isn't doing that great and you won't have enough fold equity from an EP range to make up for the times you are crushed.
        Last edited by jjpregler; 04-08-2017, 07:36 AM.

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        • #5
          I would fold 77 here for these reasons

          1. There are several players to act after you - if one of those players shoves and the UTG calls you're in a tough spot - do you want to call 2 all ins knowing you probably need to hit your 2 outer to win? With 19 BB you will likely get a better opportunity later rather then having to hit a 2 outer in this hand

          2. One or more players just call after you - now you're in a multi-way pot and out of position - 77 does not play well there - again you probably need to hit the 2 outer to feel good about betting your hand - there will be 1 or more over cards on the flop

          3. The UTG opening for 3.5 BB with just a medium stack is suspicious and I would tend to put the UTG player on a tighter range - given a tighter range at best you are a flip and at worst you're dominated

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          • #6
            Calling at our stack size is pretty dicey and we're effectively set mining without the right implied odds. So I agree we either shove or fold.

            I think this is pretty close if we were likely to be heads-up, and would maybe lean towards shoving. But in MP there are a number of stacks that can call behind, and even assuming there's only a 3% chance of them having a premium hand that snaps us off, that's enough to make this a fold for me.

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            • #7
              With 19bb I am taking my chances on the flop with any hand I intend to play. At this stage I need to take risks and the best risk/reward is to call.

              If I have AK I am hoping he has AQ and and an Ace comes on the flop - a long shot, but I have to take every chance.

              With JJ+, I am still calling. With 22+ I am calling. AJ and KQ I may fold or call.

              If a shove comes behind me and I am getting 2 to 1 by the time it gets back to me, I am calling with any pair, or AK.

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