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  • Looking for a math analysis

    I've been playing down a level building a discipline on some new game adjustments. So far having a rocky time of it but today, things seemed to be falling into place. Ended up 75 in a 2/3 capped game in 3 hours of play. Little light on the EV but considering i'm at the garbage local game. This is average.

    So here is the question for the math/range guys.

    Game 2/2/3 capped game $300 max
    BB position
    $180 stack
    33 hand

    Table has been playing loose passive except for me and Donkey who are 3/5 player playing with his friend who is villain 1. He is a 45yo ABC tag playing a severely off balanced game. Villain 2 is a LaP dog who's stuck 500 from being violated with bad beats playing a passive REG range but his fortunes turned and his stack is on the rise.

    Villain 1 stack $225
    Position EP2
    Villain 2 stack $300

    Action: UTG (Fish) limps. V1 limps, fold, V2 limps, fold, fold, (button) Donkey limps, (SB) limps, I squeeze to 11.

    Tonight this was my standard bet. I was playing splashy being one of the best at the table. This wasn't a serious squeeze but a pot builder. There were a lot of paired boards this evening, it was affecting action, all night.

    UTG folds, V1/V2 call, folds to donkey and SB who both call. Pots about 70.

    Flop 7d4d5s

    Garbage flop but SB checks, I c-bet bluff to 35. V1/V2 call donkey and SB fold.

    So I'm mentally done. The ABC tag and the LaP dog have something and my 33 can't take any heat.

    Turn is 3c

    So now my hand has improved and i'm forced to bet. I bet 50. V1 repops to $135, V2 flats. What's your move? Show your math please.

    I folded. Hands showed down... (later)
    Last edited by XBobLove; 04-07-2017, 01:46 PM.

  • #2
    I am not sure why you need math in this situation.

    There is 70 in the pot pre flop and 175 pre turn, your turn bet is less than 1/3 pot.

    When you bet you are representing a 6. Because you are representing a 6, V1 has to have a 6 to re-raise and V2 either has a flush draw or a set. If V2 has a set you are toast. If V2 has a flush draw then you have 25% chance of board pairing - a bit more with card removal of V1 and V2 hands.

    There is 495 in pot and you need to call 85 so you are getting 6 to 1 (17%), you probably have some implied odds.

    Is V2 cold calling 135 with a naked flush draw when you are still to act after him, maybe, he is getting good odds, and good implied odds IP.

    Getting 6 to 1, you should call hoping the board pairs and fold when it doesn't.

    If the board pairs you should assume V2 has a flush draw, as there is not much chance of this happening if he has a set, and therefore jam the river.

    I just noticed you only have about 55 left in your stack so you are getting even better odds (9 to 1 or 11%), and since you cannot re-raise this increases the likelihood of V2 having a flush draw.

    I think you should just chuck your last 55 in and hope the board pairs.

    By the way, with your stack I think you should just jam the turn and hope for the best.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 04-07-2017, 01:00 PM.


    • XBobLove
      XBobLove commented
      Editing a comment
      Sorry typo. I had 180 having about 80 left when I folded.

  • #3
    What I'm looking for is your the guys who bias toward the math to provide an insight so that I can check my concept of math with people more experience using it.


    • #4
      1) I use math, but I choose exploitative play when available over "GTO." I use the math for exploitation. So "math guys" and exploitation are not mutually exclusive. You can use math for GTO or you can use math to exploit. The difference is that the purpose is different for each. The GTO guys look to not be exploited themselves and make decisions that make it harder for opponent's to profit from them. Being exploitative has more risk, but looking for more reward. You leave yourself open to exploitation, by trying to adjust to your opponent to improve profits over your opponent.

      2) I'm finding it hard to follow the pot in your post and with your adjustments. Are you saying you had to call $80 to win $495? If that is the true numbers, then you need 14.3% equity for a break even call.

      3) The hard part is to accurately range both players. Obviously, you are doing horrible against his value range. His value range consists of 6x and the higher sets. Of course, you have to determine from your own experience with this player whether he is going to play two pair of over pairs like this. If he adds in those, your odds are starting to look much better. shouldn't he raise the flop with all of the higher sets? Is the caller capable of calling with the nuts? Or can you eliminate them when he just flats? That leaves flush draws and marginal hands which you beat for the caller.

      For this, most times guys will run one simulation and that's the answer. I think you should really set up mulitple simulations and situations and compare all of the answers. For instance, run one against the worst case scenario for the raiser, then add in some bluffs, then run one with the caller slow playing the nuts.

      One example is this run in Holdem EQ:

      Board: 7d5s4d3c

      Range 1: 33
      Range 2: 77-33,A6o,A6s,K6s,Q6s,J6s,T6s,96s,86s,76s,65s,Ad2d
      Range 3: 88-22,A7o-A3o,97o,87o,A7s-A3s,K7s-K4s,Q7s-Q5s,J7s-J6s,T7s-T6s,97s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad2d,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d ,Kd3d,Kd2d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd8d,JdTd,Jd9d,Jd8d,Td9d ,Td8d,9d8d

      Equity 1: 19.638% Win 1: 17.982% Tie 1: 4.968%
      Equity 2: 63.395% Win 2: 56.412% Tie 2: 15.621%
      Equity 3: 16.968% Win 3: 9.985% Tie 3: 15.621%
      Last edited by jjpregler; 04-07-2017, 10:03 PM.


      • #5
        Both of these comments are what I was looking for. I wanted to see how you range compared to how I read the situation Villain 1 had Q6s (not D) and Villain 2 had K6o.

        My freind Donkey gave me "the look" when I folded and I just replied, they both got it. (jokingly but it turned out to be true)

        Your comments helped. Thanks.


        • #6
          I didn't run K6o in the preflop range, since I didn't personally see how loose they were, but like I said, you were the one playing with him and to see how splashy they were. When you run equities in your post mortem analysis of hands, you should have a better idea of what hands they may have. I did have alot of the suited hands in there, as I suspected most splashy players would have all or most of the suited hands with a 6.

          But even against a 6, you do have 11 outs to improve to a full house. If they play straight forward and would raise the flop with the sets that beat yours, then mathematically, it's still a call in a cash game. If they have a higher set, then you have 1 out to quads and 4 outs to a chop.


          • #7
            Hi Bob , i would like to point out the leak that i think you might able to improve on.

            First your stack is not deep , playing pocket 3 by raising so small is a pot sweetening bet , you are building the pot while you card has no advantage, while you might have the skill advantage , but if player is not folding to you we still need to have better card to win in show down

            second mistake , your c bet size is too small be it for value or for bluff, now in a mutiway pot with such a wet board , you c bet 35 into 70 pot , just the pot odd alone first villain is having 1 to 3 to call , for the second villain is having 1 to 4 etc not include implied odd

            third mistake when you bet at turn what you want to achieve? value or bluff? not much worst card is calling you , a 6 is 100% calling you or might raise you, so you should opt for check call or check fold depend on your read if villain is capable bluffing in that spot.

            fourth mistake after you bet the turn even villain jam you ,you can start count do you have near to 1 :5 odd to call it . lets say we know villain has a 6 we have 20% to hit out house or better. i am not thinking or worrying villain has better set , if has better set so be it ,its a cooler, we cant escape and with your stack so short behind dont need think of escaping cooler, if scared of set over set then in the first place should not play pocket 3

            so far my analysis make sense to you?

            to top it up example if villain show me he has a straight and the pot $100 and i left $10 he shove me i am 101% will call even i know i am behind because the maths tell me to call. in long run its a plus Ev decision
            Last edited by Paul Khoo; 04-08-2017, 01:35 PM.


            • XBobLove
              XBobLove commented
              Editing a comment

              These were not mistakes. These were deliberate actions taken to exploit the villains.

              Move 1: This is correct, the opening bet was a pot sweetener. If I hit my 3 there would be enough money in the center that people would incentivised to continue in marginal spots. On flops like this, against a range, my hand figures to be the best in obvious spots. Put another way, if the flush, straight or broadway show, I can easily get off the hand.

              Move 2: This was a standard c-bet sized to keep people in the pot. This is a safe flop but 1 flopped paired hands can't take a lot of heat. It's supposed to look like exactly what it is. This game is a lot like yours. People will gamble/float at big pots with draws and overs, people will not stick around without top pair+ into strong bets. Bet sizing has to be perfect.

              Move 3: Making a set to toward the nut hand that also makes the straight puts me in an awkward position. Like I said on the turn, I was done with the hand, they had something. There was a 1 card straight on board with an ABC player and a passive chaser who's range includes a lot of connectors. Now I could jam into the effective nut hand and pairs and get paid against most of that range. I could blocker bet and see if the ABC player continues and asses the LaP dog on the fly. I could check/jam the turn and see what happens or jam the river. I felt that the blocker bet covered most of the options and when ABC goes big. Thats all you need to know. When LaP dog comes along to the party, set is drawing thin... really thin.

              Fold: Whether this is a mistake or not depends on your perspective. Sklansky says no. Torelli says no. Math Jockey says yes. Khoo says yes. Hindsight says no.

              Sunday PS- Compare my line to their actual holdings. I read the situation 100% correctly all the way down. We can have an honest disagreement about the fold but otherwise it was a good line. Would they have folded open ended on the flop? Not a chance. Am I getting better to fold on the turn? Not a chance. Would they have folded if I bet bigger preflop? Certainly, but betting big with 33 just to win the hand and peanuts is a leak. I'm trying to stack someone, not win a small pot.
              Last edited by XBobLove; 04-09-2017, 12:37 PM.

          • #8
            JJ: Lately I have been trying to execute on math oriented play and all its doing at the moment is costing me $$$. Moving down and playing 2/3 may be the problem as everyone one gambles and values bets making then 90% perfectly readable. This was one of those 10% hands.

            The reason I posted is that I went and played this game and casino twice recently just meeting friends and not intending to play seriously other than build a discipline on what I've decided to change. taking stabs at 3 other big pots in similar mathematical situations, i've lost to effective nut hands in capped bet situations (no more betting because hero or villain was all in) that 1) had about 17% actual equity and but 30% against a range and 2) hands I would have folded based on my standard game play live reads.

            The top pure math guys say that you take the equity win or lose because exploiting, playing reads, etc., fouls up the long term EV of each particular situation. I follow the Torelli theory that the math is the poker playing environment but poker is about people making decision. You can never know if this is you bad beat or jackpot hand but over time playing the math will work out if you play enough hands. My take is since all my stints at the tables are short, long term EV is clocked with a calendar not a stopwatch.

            There is something, not in the fundamentals, but in the decision making I'm not understanding about the range approach and I'm not sure I could even articulate the correct question to ask.

            For the others who say jam the small stack, i'll start another sting on this point.


            • #9
              You don't need a lot of math and, unless opponents are highly predictable, you should not be placing a lot of faith in pre lop ranges, especially at 2/3. In any case once betting occurs on the flop 95% of pre flop range is irrelevant.

              In the example you have given, common sense dictates that one or both have a 6, and almost certainly V1. It doesn't matter how many 6 are in their pre flop range. V2 has to have a 6, flush draw or set.

              If you are not up against V2 having a set, then with card removal you have exactly 25% chance of improving to a full house.

              Then you just count the pot, how much you have to call, do you have any implied odds etc.

              In this case you are getting better than 3 to 1 and you are 3 to 1 to win.

              Your opponents' range is a 6.


              • #10
                The range is really about finding the hands that they can't have. It is eliminating the set of hands that is unlikely or impossible based on the action and the set of hands remaining that was not eliminated is the hand range.

                Contrary to what Patrick said, you can start with preflop action. They don't have any two cards. They may have a wide range with very wide board coverage, but if you are not eliminating hands starting preflop. Here you can eliminate big hands preflop. They would have raised hands like 99/AQ. You can also eliminate the smaller unconected unsuited hands as ever the worst players know to stay away from them. Hands that affect this hand are probably hands like 63o/62o.

                So every action taken you are able to eliminate hands because every action has a meaning.


                • #11
                  I agree. I think that is what I said. But does one of V1, V2 never have a six.


                  • #12
                    I did not seriously consider either one had a 6 on the flop. Here is what I thought of both.

                    V1 AA-99, A7, A5, A4, maybe A6, 77, 55, 44
                    V2 AA-99, A7, A5, A4, probable A6, 77, 55, 44, 56, 67, 68 (aka Pacheco Nuts), 75s, 54, unlikely K6

                    Once they call both call the turn, cut out the top end of the range.
                    Last edited by XBobLove; 04-09-2017, 12:28 PM.


                    • #13
                      I am baffled. Put yourself in V1's spot. You lead out, is he ever raising without a six. Perhaps he is semi-bluffing with A8d, but I really don't think so. And what about V2, what does he think about V1's raise. As it turned out one had Q6s the other K6o, neither hand look likely as a response to a big raise from the blinds.

                      Some of the range analysis that goes on in these hands defies common sense. You did not seriously consider that one or both had a six?


                      • #14
                        No, that is such a small part of their range and the only reasonable 6X hands were 67, 68, and A6. And only A6 should be in there to a squeeze with an EP limp call and action behind.

                        I'm stunned that V1 had Q6. V2 was at least understandable for him, that is.


                        • #15
                          But that is the whole point. If the action points to just one combination out of 200, then that is the most likely. In this case there are a few more than one, not many I grant you. I can guarantee that V1 was poo-ing his pants because he was worried that V2 had 86 even though this is a tiny number of combos. And V2 was similarly worried about V1.
                          Last edited by Patrick O; 04-09-2017, 01:47 PM.


                          • #16
                            There is some amount of combo's that so few becomes seeing monsters under the bed. That number depends on a few variables (player type, flop texture, hero's hand) but given that the 6X is only open ended with respect to preflop action and player images, there were better hands to narrow them down to.

                            I didn't think this was the place to hero becasue if they had the hands I read them for, specifically 2 pair and possibly made straight, I was concerned I was drawing to as few as 1-4 outs.


                            • #17
                              Yes. The hero business is beside the point. The real point is - does any one of V1, V2 not have a six. Sorry to be pedantic, but this is a common theme in hands posted here.

                              Try playing some very deep stack, full ring, Omaha. The first time you lose a $2K pot in a $1-$2 game with QJ on a QJJxx board, you become very aware that when someone is keen to get 500bb in against you, then you are toast. Unless your opponent is a complete idiot, and yes, I have made a lot of money in Omaha against idiots, you are toast. There is only one combination of QQ, but generally I don't gamble on my opponent being a total idiot. The times where I make the money is when I have QQ, and even then I am worried about JJ. Usually I am only getting all the money in when I have QJ on a QQJxx board.

                              You are not drawing to 1-4 outs. You are drawing to 10 outs. three 7's, three 4's, three 5's, one 3. Nobody has two pair.
                              Last edited by Patrick O; 04-09-2017, 04:45 PM.


                              • #18
                                after reading all comment on the top , My own summary ,in cash game i will make the call if the pots odds give me right odds, while if this situation is in tourney i will fold if i highly think i am behind. while this situation after you bet the turn v1 or v2 behind you still can raise clearly you are beat, and you are behind. i think all of us agree on this. Now is should we call off even we know we are behind.

                                Now i play poker cash game, i learn to see long term and not result orientated in short term. that's why i always say we need to proper bankroll ourselves for us to see long term and Bob you are right to see Ev and long term is not by stop watch , is min by calendar if we are talking about live cash game, and is depend on how many game you play and how many hand you play

                                i disagree Patrick view in term of omaha and Bob view of too less 6 combo in villain range.
                                Omaha and holdem need to play differently , omaha tend to have too much draw and the combo possibility is much higher, and what you refer here is 500bb wanted to commit in with you while bob example is his stack is so short and too much gambler in his table.
                                example pocket QQ pocket JJ is a snap shove for me pre or flop with this stack , if a 500bb stack when you shove with your pocket QQ when someone call you , you are 100% behind.

                                Everything point to your first move or raising so small pre in this table dynamic, K6o should not be inside maybe is villain favorite hand or most likely the raise is so small for them and they feel that they are price in to call. when we have pocket 3 we really dont want k6 to call us.
                                from my experience even we raise bigger in a gamblers table, K6s Q6s alot of suited hands they will come in and they see too much value in suited hand.
                                if you ask me how many combos of 6 i think villain hand possible have i can tell you alot , A6o A6s K6s Q6s 56o 67o 68s 46s, 66. to be frank k6o i was abit shock v1 have that but look back is because of your preflop raise is not big enough.


                                • #19

                                  This perspective shows growth! Keep up the good work.

                                  in no foldem holdem games raising bet sizes to adjust is a leak. Small raises and playing position is the superior adjustment.