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Tough Spot Deep In A Weekly

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  • Tough Spot Deep In A Weekly

    $175 Live Tournament. 23 left 16 get paid (8 handed)

    B - 1500/3000 + 400
    P - CO
    S - 66k
    H - 76o

    I have been fortunate to have a fairly soft table and have had success raising from LP and taking the blinds down often. I have not seen a 3 bet in a few levels. I have since widened my range taking advantage of this dynamic.

    A young black male in the SB just moved to our table and is the chip leader of the tournament (200k +).
    The BB is a loose passive older male (75k).
    The BTN is an older female who is very loose pre-flop and is aggressive post flop with made hands, but very straightforward (90k).

    I open to 6k. BTN, SB and BB all call. At this point I am done with the hand unless I smash the flop.

    Flop (15,200) = 9 9 T r

    checks around

    Turn (15,200) = 8

    SB bets 10k. BB immediately jams for around 70k.

    At our stack size is this an easy jam?

  • #2
    I think our opponent is going to have a naked 9 enough in this spot to make this a profitable jam.

    Comment


    • #3
      You need to call 20 big blinds to win 51 big blinds (assuming SB folds) - so you have about 40% equity - so you need to win this hand at least 40% of the time to make this call profitable.

      Given that this is a tournament and you are nearing the bubble I feel you need to win this hand at a higher rate given the opportunity cost - lets say you need to win 50% of the time to justify a call in this situation

      Now what range could the Big Blind shove with in this situation? I think his range is relatively wide given how the hand has played out so far, the action pre flop, that he is the chip leader and has both players in the hand covered. Let say his range is:

      TT, T9, 98, JQ, A9, K9, Q9, J9, 97, 96, 77, 66, QJ, KJ, AJ, AT, KT, QT, JT

      You don't give the suit of the turn 8 so I've ignored suits in the above range.

      Against this range I believe you will win more then 50% of the time so a call is the correct play.

      I'm just starting to do this type of analysis so please let me know if I've made a mistake.

      Comment


      • #4
        Yeah, i've moved down to commit to range poker and see how it goes. The answer so far is not well. In the last 5 large hands while holding an overpaid, on boards like these and loose passive players, my exploitative read play would have performed better. Based on a range, you're slightly ahead. Jamming falls into the thin value realm. Putting on the exploitative reader hat, this is a call at best, against LaP dogs. The dogs will only call your jam if you're beat and since it's a tourney, surviving has value. Everyone can see that the world could be out there. The only viable hands are

        ​​​​​​
        TT, T9, 98, JQ, A9, K9, Q9, J9, 97, 96.

        the only hands that call a jam are
        ​​​​
        TT, T9, 98, JQ, A9

        You're only beating A9.

        The other problem you have is that there is the over shove from a OG LaP dog. I don't see him defending 9X with one card to come and made straights completed.

        Comment


        • #5
          The SB bet out for 2/3 pot, the BB jams for 3 times pot with two players still to act and you still have one player still to act after you. I think if BB had a naked 9 he would not be so confident.

          If he had say J9 (trips and open end), why jam.

          I think he has to have at least QJ.

          His jam doesn't make sense unless he has QJ, 88, 98, T9 (maybe A9) and is worried another 9 will outdraw him. TT would be wanting to keep players in. Jamming A9 would be poor play on this board given the action.
          Last edited by Patrick O; 04-05-2017, 08:03 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Bob, range poker and exploitative poker are not mutually exclusive.

            The process I use is:

            Find all the hands that explain the action on the given board. For example on this board with the BB the chance of a stone cold bluff seems close to zero.

            Are there any of these hands that seem unlikely to be in a players pre flop range.

            I try to visualise the situation from Villain's spot. We vary a lot in skill and tendencies, but often this doesn't matter, plain common sense usually dictates how any player will see a given situation.

            In other words, I work backward from the board and action to the pre flop range.
            Last edited by Patrick O; 04-05-2017, 08:43 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Patrick O View Post
              If he had say J9 (trips and open end), why jam.

              Jamming A9 would be poor play on this board given the action.
              The answer to this is on in the same. Scared value... where the sweet smell of fear meets the effective nut hand with streets to go.
              Bad Regs hate getting drawn out on so they over bet pots forcing the draws to play big (which plays right into gamblers seeking implied odds draws) and thinking that it's better to take down a pot there and be happy about it.

              Comment


              • #8
                Yes. Players often have a mixture of both fear and excitement. Also there are often situations where I think "I am not folding on some future street, although I am not loving it, so I might as well get it in now". This would explain hands such as A9.

                What about JT, the BB is a loose passive 75 yo. If he calls and every one else folds, there is 35K in pot and he has 60K still left. If a player after him jams, then he would probably call.

                What does the SB have. He bet 2/3 pot into three players, is it a steal, does he have JT. What does the BB think about the SB's bet.

                It would be reasonable for the BB to think the SB has at least a 9 or JT. It would be a gutsy steal by SB against three players, however no one has shown much interest on the flop.
                Last edited by Patrick O; 04-05-2017, 10:39 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I actually tanked for quite a while on this hand. When I came to a conclusion I figured the SB had many 9's in his range, along with a few pure bluffs if he was aggressive and just taking a stab, and of course a few hands that crush me.

                  When the loose passive older guy rips it all in I figured he could also have a ton of 9's and hands that have me beat. But 9's made up a larger portion of his range with the price he was getting pre-flop. At these smaller stakes against passive players whenever they rip it in like this, in my experience, it is usually hands that are the stone cold nuts or hands they perceive to be the nuts. And more often than not, it is hands they perceive to be the nuts. And in this case I thought he could have so many 9's that I was ahead enough to make the call.

                  One thing I failed to do is gauge a read on the loose lady to my left. I may have noticed her excitement because as soon as I jammed all in, she snap jammed the rest of her stack in faster than I have ever seen anyone do so.

                  The SB folded immediately and the BTN turned over 88

                  The BB turned over K9h

                  And I was drawing dead.

                  This was a tough hand to gauge if I made the right play or not.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I still think in this spot, a straight is too good of a hand to fold based on what our opponents can have here. If we're folding 76, we fold 90% of our hands to a shove when we have 20BB behind. I can see calling with all my straights and boats and some of my stronger 9x and folding the rest.
                    Last edited by jpgiro; 04-07-2017, 08:56 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      This is pretty much a setup - you are out of position to a player who hits a 2 outer on the the turn and you had almost no information on that player's range in this hand (BTN called a min raise pre flop and checked the flop).

                      You had to act before the BTN and were facing a a bet and a large raise - you are in a tough spot. I don't think your analysis of what to do could be influenced by what the BTN may have since you have so little information about the BTN's possible range.

                      Given that you're still 7 players from the money and your stack size is low and given that you are ahead of much of the BB's range (I do believe the BB will make this play with a wide range as the possibility that the SB is trying to steal the pot is high) I think a call is the correct play.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        A good discussion of ranges and equity, but here are a couple of thoughts:
                        You made a reasonable attempt to steal the blinds and when that didn't work you were prepared to let it go if you didn't "smash the flop."
                        flop is checked around and you hit the turn but I wouldn't say you "smashed" it. Low end of a straight with a pair on board, too many hands beat you. You have put no more money in, why deviate from your original plan?
                        You still have 20BB, that is not really "low" at this stage of a tournament. I try not to overthink these situations and put my tournament life on the line where I originally had no intention of doing so.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by HUK View Post
                          A good discussion of ranges and equity, but here are a couple of thoughts:
                          You made a reasonable attempt to steal the blinds and when that didn't work you were prepared to let it go if you didn't "smash the flop."
                          flop is checked around and you hit the turn but I wouldn't say you "smashed" it. Low end of a straight with a pair on board, too many hands beat you. You have put no more money in, why deviate from your original plan?
                          You still have 20BB, that is not really "low" at this stage of a tournament. I try not to overthink these situations and put my tournament life on the line where I originally had no intention of doing so.
                          My original plan only involved the flop. Once we get to the turn, I believe we have to reevaluate the situation and consider all options. Although our hand is by no means the nuts, we now have a pretty strong hand when you factor in the board and actions opposed to a hand that is most likely behind on the flop going 4 ways.

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