Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Did I Analyze this hand correctly?

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Did I Analyze this hand correctly?

    I have a couple of questions here.

    Did I make a good call?
    Did I analyze his range well?
    How many random Club suited hand combos make sense from him to have and then Semi-bluff with?
    What other hands would/could he be bluffing with in this spot?

    Game- NLH $0.50/$1 - Home Game


    Stacks
    Hero - $239
    Villain - $245

    Hands
    Hero - AcAh - CO
    Villain - Kc10c - LoJack

    9 handed

    Action
    Game is a little crazy, standard raise is between $3 - $6, with the occasional raise to $12-$14



    Preflop
    SB folds
    BB folds
    UTG limps
    UTG +1 folds
    UTG +2 limps
    Villain raises to $4 - loose and splashy player
    HiJ folds
    Hero 3-bets to $12 - I think my image is solid, aggressive, but will gamble. Have been straddling and double straddling a lot
    BTN folds

    Everyone folds to villain who calls $8


    Flop
    KhQc6c


    Villain - Shoves

    I put him on a lot more one pair hands, draws, and bluffs then sets or two pair hands

    All Hands that beat me

    KQ 9 combos
    66 3 combos
    QQ possible 3 combos - but may have 4-bet preflop
    KK 3 combos - but unlikely as almost always 4-betting pre-flop
    K6 - 9 combos - but would think he would fold to the 3-bet pre-flop
    Q6 - 9 combos - but would think he would fold to the 3-bet pre-flop

    So 17 combos that have me beat

    KQ - 9
    66 - 3 but doubt he would shove with a set, so 1 combo
    QQ - 2 but doubt he would shove with a set, so 1 combo
    KK - 1 but doubt he would shove with a set, so 1 combo
    K6 - 1 because he would fold most to a pre-flop raise
    Q6 - 1 because he would fold most to a pre-flop raise

    So I think he would be shoving with 14 combos


    All Hands that I’m beating
    AK. 6 combos
    AQ. 6 combos
    KJ. 12 combos
    K10. 12 combos
    K9. 12 combos
    Kcxc. Maybe 2 combos, don't think he would call with Kc5c and down
    QJ. 12 combos, probably not shoving
    Q10. 12 combos, probably not shoving
    Qcxc . Maybe 2 combos, don't think he would call with Qc5c and down
    JJ. 6 combos, but would he shove with this
    1010. 6 combos, but would he shove with this
    99. 6 combos, but would he shove with this


    Semi-Bluffs
    AJ 8 combos
    A10 8 combos
    J10 8 combos
    10,9 8 combos
    Random club suited hands ?

    Bluffs

    22-88 would think he would check with these
    Others? What would he be bluffing with here?

    So about 14 combos beat me and 20-35 I beat, so I call



    Turn
    4c
    Unfortunate turn card, but I still have 15% equity


    River
    5s
    I lost


    Last edited by Stile2; 04-02-2017, 08:28 PM.

  • #2
    You did nothing conceptually wrong, analyzed it fine, and flipped a coin for $250. Flipping coins for big bucks on otherwise small pots isn't good play So when I want to play good, I could get off this hand easily. If I were just screwing around with friends, oh what the hell, send it!!!!

    Comment


    • #3
      Your analysis is fine. The shove is a bit strange, but it is a crazy home game.

      You are correct in thinking he is not shoving with two pairs or sets. It looks a lot like a big combo draw. He wants to get a lot of money in because he is excited about his huge draw and does not want you checking.

      You have Ac so this cuts out all the AcXc, in particular he does not have AcTc, AcJc. The Qc is on the board.

      He opened then called a 3-bet and his draw must be based on clubs, so the most likely hands are KcXc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c.

      If you are sure he is not shoving with a huge made hand, then it is a call, You are about 53% favourite against KcXc and you have Ac as backup. So if you feel like mostly flipping and occasional being dead to 66 etc then call. Home games wouldn't be much fun if you folded here.
      Last edited by Patrick O; 04-02-2017, 10:16 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Actually, no. Your analysis theory is fine, but there are a few errors in your execution. You have a number of hands in the range that probably should not be there. Like you areldy mentioned about K6, it's not there. So just don't count it. And K9s is also probably not there. Most of the unsuited broadways should not be in there as well. Any one pair hand not top pair top kicker should be reduced or eliminated.

        First, you should think in categories of hands. A bet like this either means a premium value hand or a bluff. You can likely eliminate marginal hands from his range. Of course, there is a small possibility he is over playing a marginal hand, but if that is a possibility, you should weight his range.

        When I run this spot in having him at about 10% call range. TT - 22, suited broadways, AQ/AJ/KQ and the better suited connectors. Then I eliminate the marginal hands that would just call the c-bet. This is the range of hands that are most likely in his range:

        66, KQo, KQs, JTs, KcJc, KcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c.

        Against that range AA has 42% equity. Then you can start tweaking the ranges from there.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks guys

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi stile2 , your analysis theory , is reasonable good , like what jipregler has mention that is part you should improve, and KQ is the only hand i am more worried villain might have. you make the right call just run bad .

            Comment

            Working...
            X