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Is there ever to many bb to call with the best hand?

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  • Is there ever to many bb to call with the best hand?

    in second place, 20 from the money in the LoJack seat. I open raise 2.5bb with QQ 47bb deep. 3rd in chips on the bb jams for 45 bb's. I called and lost. I'm pretty sure I played it right but wonder if you ever consider folding instead of taking the flip when your that deep. Went from 2nd in chips to out in 2 hands. Any thoughts are appreciated..

  • #2
    45bb is a big jam over a 2.5bb open. Is he doing this with AA.

    QQ is the third best hand. We can do all sorts of equity analysis, but I prefer to think in terms of how often I have the best hand pre flop. If it turns out I am flipping against AKs, then that is fine, I got it in with the best hand.

    So, no, you can't fold QQ for 45bb here, otherwise your opponents will never let you play a hand.

    It is worthwhile considering which hands you can fold, say you had JJ. He is probably not jamming with QQ because he is worried he will only get called by a better hand, or flipping against AK, in other words, his implied odds are not good. He would be wanting to get value from worse hands when he has KK, AA so he would make a standard 3-bet.

    Players like to jam with AK because it blocks AA,KK and they don't like playing a flop, especially OOP, when they miss 2/3 of occasions. If he doesn't like making a standard 3-bet from the blinds, he should just call your raise, and call a bet on the flop when he misses. The pot is small so it is not expensive to call the flop bet.

    If we think all of this is close to being true, we need to consider calling with 22.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 04-02-2017, 03:17 AM.

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    • #3
      In general, I'm probably never folding QQ to any bet HU but there are those rare exceptions. In a live read situation, if the villain is so readable that this is a nit jam from a scared player, on the bubble this is the best hand I would ever consider laying down. Even now, I can't think of a time where I folded.

      One time a player like this one outed me, I knew I got one outed, and I couldn't get away from it. Then she tuned it over, showed the one outer and out the door I go. Sometimes you lose.

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      • #4
        Thanks for the feedback. I remember in game I was sure he didn't have kl or aa. I ranged him at 99-QQ , ak,Aq, and maybe even aj as he was very active. So as far as the range gos I made the right call but still wonder if I should have folded with 45 bb's and picked on the small stacks ?? Just thinking.

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        • #5
          So what did he have?

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          • #6
            In MTT's the main decision metric for spots like this is equity. If he shoved 100BBs, the main metric is your pot odds versus your equity. If he shoved 1000BBs your main metric would be your pot odds versus your equity.

            Unlike cash games though, you don't want to call in spots where your equity is only slightly positive. For instance in this situation presented above you have to call about 42.5BBs to win to win 47.5BBs. Your equity required for a break even call is 47%. In a cash game you would call with any hand that has 47% or more versus the range of hands he could be shoving.

            In MTTs, surviving has some value. You don't want to call off in very marginal spots. You want to have some edge. I usually set my edge about 5% higher in spots like this. So you should call with any hand that has 52% equity or more against his range. With the range you assigned him, if you are accurate, you have 67% equity against that range making this an easy call.

            Having 67% equity in this pot has an expected value of 17.8 BBs. That is huge. You almost never find spots this huge in MTTs ever. You cannot develop any argument that would allow for missing a spot this good in an MTT.

            Passing up good spots to hope to pick on smaller stacks is not a valid argument to pass up good spots. It is a heuristic advice that would be misapplied. Yes, pass up marginal spots against huge stacks. Marginal is defined as positive equity inside the edge you set for yourself. For instance if you had 50% equity in this hand.

            There is nothing in this heuristic advice that would mean to pass up huge expectation spots like this.
            Last edited by jjpregler; 04-03-2017, 05:38 AM.

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            • #7
              20 from the money is still a long way- unless it's a massive field MTT. Even then there is a lot of min-cash places to get through before you are talking about a big pay jump. Without being an expert I would suggest the ICM considerations are minimal here.

              I agree with Patrick O that AA is unlikely here, as he kills his value so often. You can probably, but less likely put KK in the same box- because everyone knows "an ace always flops when you have KK!!" I actually heard a player justify a 12X open with KK with exactly that logic.

              These kind of bets scream medium strong pocket pairs to me- maybe 99-JJ. A bit too strong to simply call and set mine (although he is getting the right price), but not strong enough to be confident going forwards on many flops (JJ is 36% to be an overpair, 99 is only 17%. Obviously our exact hand crushes these hands.

              Given these tendencies I think I would call.

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              • #8
                Yes, this is what I thought. I was only afraid of AK which is what he had. But I thought he would do it with 99 plus. AQ,&AJ. So thought the call was good.

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                • #9
                  I hardly ever see 45bb shoves. In these situations I try to put myself in the shover's spot. Would I shove with 99 or even QQ. If everyone folds I pick up 4bb, nice but not a lot compared to my 45bb.

                  I see a lot of weird plays but I never see a 45bb shove with AQ.

                  The few times I see a 45bb shove it is always AK. The shover is not confident about his post flop play and wants to flip. If he wins this flip he has enough chips to basically sit out until another flipping opportunity arrives. Not a bad strategy for a player who does not like playing post flop, and maybe a very good strategy against world class players.

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                  • #10
                    The extreme example is the old question . . .

                    It's the first hand of the WSOP Main Event. Someone jams their entire starting stack. Everyone else folds and you look down at AA in the big blind. Do you call?

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                    • #11
                      I would. There will be plenty more times that I will be gambling my stack, might as well be the first hand.
                      Last edited by Patrick O; 04-04-2017, 10:27 AM.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JinnRex View Post
                        The extreme example is the old question . . .

                        It's the first hand of the WSOP Main Event. Someone jams their entire starting stack. Everyone else folds and you look down at AA in the big blind. Do you call?
                        100%. Why would you ever want to fold. The chips have a dollar value. Granted the first hand the chips you win are about 5% less in value than the chips you lose, due to small ICM issues from hand 1. But essentially, your adjusted expectation is $7,600 in chip value to call.
                        Last edited by jjpregler; 04-04-2017, 11:24 AM.

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                        • #13
                          A bit of a tangent but the more interesting version of the question goes like this:
                          First hand of the main event. You are BB. UTG goes all-in. Then every other player goes all-in! Before you act everyone turns up their cards and they all have different pocket pairs! You look down at AA. What do you do. When this question was posed to a bunch of pros some actually said they would fold.

                          And then this: You are from Topeka Kansas. You have saved for three years to play in the main event. You really want to make it to day two at least. You've booked your room for 8 days but you will have no more money to play with. First hand you are in the BB. It folds around to the small blind. He inadvertently exposes KK and goes all-in. you have AA. What do you do?

                          (Sorry if this has been discussed in this forum. I can't remember where I first read this)

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                          • #14
                            You are setting up a situation with opposing parameters. On one side is the "right" play in poker when the goal is to actually win. On the other side is the option for choosing the wrong play because the premises is that the player is not trying to win, but to meet some other goal other than winning.

                            If your goal for playing is to win, there is only one answer.

                            Granted many players have different reasons for playing and that's fine, but that doesn't change the "right" poker answer. It may change the "personal" answer for that person, but they would be purposely choosing the wrong poker option to meet their own personal criteria. Is it right for them? Who is to say. But that will never make it the right poker answer.
                            Last edited by jjpregler; 04-07-2017, 09:23 PM.

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                            • #15
                              http://www.pokerstrategy.com

                              UTG 4.82% { 55 }
                              UTG+1 4.43% { 66 }
                              UTG+2 4.24% { 77 }
                              MP1 4.65% { 88 }
                              MP2 5.93% { 99 }
                              MP3 8.14% { TT }
                              CO 10.57% { JJ }
                              BU 14.20% { QQ }
                              SB 18.72% { KK }
                              BB 24.29% { AA }

                              76% of the time you bust/ 24% of the time you win 300k. t42,000 cEV.
                              Last edited by jjpregler; 04-07-2017, 09:31 PM.

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                              • #16
                                Originally posted by jjpregler View Post
                                You are setting up a situation with opposing parameters. On one side is the "right" play in poker when the goal is to actually win. On the other side is the option for choosing the wrong play because the premises is that the player is not trying to win, but to meet some other goal other than winning.

                                If your goal for playing is to win, there is only one answer.

                                Granted many players have different reasons for playing and that's fine, but that doesn't change the "right" poker answer. It may change the "personal" answer for that person, but they would be purposely choosing the wrong poker option to meet their own personal criteria. Is it right for them? Who is to say. But that will never make it the right poker answer.
                                If you're talking about the Topeka question of course you are absolutely correct.
                                In the first example, however, I think a rigid math response to find the "correct poker answer" might be leaving something out.
                                It may have been Phil Helmuth who said he would fold because he believes he has such a big advantage over the field that he would never risk his whole stack early when he was such a big underdog to win the hand. I'm sure there is a way to factor that in mathematically, but I don't know how to do it. Say you could prove that you were ten times "better" than any other poker player in a given tournament. Would you still be willing to use the same equity calculations to dictate your play? I wouldn't. And I know Phil doesn't.
                                To simplify it, if I were playing Phil headsup and had a chance to get all in with him with a 51-49 percent edge, I'd jump on it, but he would pass on that same opportunity knowing that he could almost certainly grind me down when he had much bigger edges. And he would certainly not get it all in against 10 of me in a tournament with 1000 of me in a hand where he was a 3 to 1 dog.
                                I hope I am responding coherently to the point you were making. I might have misinterpreted what you were saying.

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                                • #17
                                  Phil Helmuth is wrong. He is not taking into account total risk assessment over the entire tournament.

                                  Even though in the pocket pair example we only have 24% chance, taking this chance and building a huge stack actually reduces our total risk of busting the tournament.

                                  Suppose I am such a nit that I only play AA, as luck has it, every time I get AA someone else has KK and insists on getting it in. Because I am a nit, every time I have AA, the KK player has me covered.

                                  My chance of winning against KK is 80%. But I have to survive multiple encounters and each one is sudden death. The chance I will survive just three of these all in is just 51%.

                                  We have better overall risk when we cram all these separate encounters into one hand, as with the pocket pair example, In this case we have nine opponents each with a pocket pair and we are 24%.

                                  If we have nine separate encounters with AA against a pocket pair and our opponent has us covered every time then we are only 13% to survive all nine encounters.

                                  It does illustrate one strategy against world class players, just shove your stack into them, they hate it and make huge folds.

                                  Sklansky had an interesting anecdote. Binion's young daughter had never played a hand of poker, but had a yen to play the WSOP main event. Sklansky had half an hour to coach the young lady, the only move was shoves based on parameters. The other players were pulling their hair out and folding KK.

                                  The young lady survived to day two and only busted when she departed from "the system" and ran into AA. If she had stuck to the system she would have avoided this encounter.

                                  The little I know, Phil Helmuth has an unusual approach. He doesn't turn up until he thinks he is down to 15bb, if he raises and someone shoves, he doesn't consider his equity against a range, he folds and now plays with 12.5bb. Seems exploitable to me.

                                  I figure I am going to need a lot of luck to win. To maximise my luck I need to be seated for every hand that is dealt.
                                  Last edited by Patrick O; 04-08-2017, 12:29 AM.

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                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by HUK View Post
                                    It may have been Phil Helmuth who said he would fold because he believes he has such a big advantage over the field that he would never risk his whole stack early when he was such a big underdog to win the hand. I'm sure there is a way to factor that in mathematically, but I don't know how to do it.
                                    Matt Hunt on another training site did some work on this and the conclusion was that player vastly over estimate their edge in MTTs.

                                    On the first hand of the WSOP the average ICM is about 5%. Then a good player with those stacks has about a 15BB per 100 hands advantage. (Think of really good cash game players win rates. That is about the same as the MTT players edge per hand.) At 20 BBs per 100 hands, the players per hand advantage is about 0.02BBs every hand. So on the first hand, the player should set his edge to about t1,700. If risking your stack has an edge greater t1,700, then folding is a mathematical error. Here the results are almost 10x greater than the estimated real edge the player has.

                                    Look on the other end. What happens if you give Phil Helmuth t300,000 on the first hand? What are his chances of cashing now? Final tabling?

                                    https://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/...le-edge-model/

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