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Rivered set situation

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  • Rivered set situation

    Am new member here, but have been reading a lot of posts, after reading a few JL's books and listening to podcasts. Decided to join to post this hand I recently played.
    Need your help analyzing my play. I may have butchered it badly, but I thought I had a plan.

    300 buyin live tourney, 3hrs in, deepstack.
    Me: have laggy image, which I try hard to maintain (naturally I'm a nit, but force myself to play looser / more aggro). Early in tourney, entered many hands in position with connectors, suited cards, etc.
    Villain: I have him as a tag from 3hrs at the same table, but do not have much history.
    Stacks: 26k
    Blinds: 250-500. maybe ante 25 - does not matter much.

    Villain bets 1200, all fold to me on button with 4s4c. I flat, blinds fold.
    Flop is Js7d5d, two diamonds.
    Villain bets 600 into 3.1k pot. I raise to 2.1k. Villain tanks and calls.
    My thoughts: Villain's weak bet on flop, am turning my hand into a bluff. With his call, I put him on middle pair, maybe (unlikely) flush draw. Plan is to bluff him off his hands on any future high or low cards, or diamonds.

    Turn: 6c. Villain checks, I check behind. My reasoning is that suddenly my hand gained tonns of equity and i don't want to be checkraised out of it. My plan is to bet heavy on any checked river.
    River: 4h. Villain bets 6k into 7.2k pot. I reluctantly call.

    Thoughts? Suggestions? Thanks, all!
    Will post his hand later.

  • #2
    He is representing an QQ+, AJ, 8, 3, JJ, 77, 55, 66, the question is how many bluffs does he have, and how many do you have.

    When you raise his c-bet you are representing a J, set or an unlikely two pair. You would have 3-bet pre flop with QQ+. You also have a lot of bluffs, mainly diamond draws, of which there are a heap. Being on the button you could have 86s. You are not often raising with a J, certainly not KJ, so your value range is very narrow JJ, 77, 55 and your bluff range very wide.

    You did not mention Villain's position, which would give a clue about his range.

    Depending on his range there could be quite a lot of 8 in his range. If he had 89s he had a double gutter on the flop.

    If he had Ad8d he would not hesitate to call your raise. But he might have been tanking over how to respond to your raise.

    If he had 87, TT, 99, 88, 66, 33, 8s9s, T8s he would be thinking about whether to call with a two-flush on the board.

    If he had QQ+, JJ, 77, 55, AJ he might be thinking about whether to let you bluff, or value bet, the turn

    When you check behind on turn, he now thinks your raise was mainly a bluff. The board is looking dangerous for your AJ etc, but it is only getting worse on the river, so you would bet the turn.

    He doesn't think you often have an 8 or 3 in this spot. If you had an 8 you would continue to bluff the turn. For example you would be liking your Ad8d , Ad3d, Ad4d a lot.

    If he is bluffing, what hand called the flop raise, that is now busted. Mainly diamond draws, a few Ts9s, AQ, KQ, QsTs etc

    So he has a lot of bluffs and some 8 and maybe a few 3, and some QQ+, AJ, JJ, 77, 55, 66.

    If he thinks you have a busted draw or a weak hand, why bet so much on the river. If he had an 8, 3, JJ, 77, 55, 66, QQ+, AJ he would bet smaller hoping to get called by a weak hand. If he has a bluff he still doesn't need to bet much because you rarely have even one pair.

    If he is bluffing he might bet big enough to get you off whatever one pair you might have made by the river. It is difficult for him to put you on a rivered set. You might have picked up a weak pair with your diamond draw. But this is unlikely. He might have say TT and be hoping to get you to fold a weak J. He might think you raised with a weak J in order to get a cheap showdown. However he knows most weak J would bet the turn because they picked up extra outs, e.g J8, J9

    I think his value hands outnumber his bluffs. If he doesn't think you have an 8 or 3 (and you almost never do), then he might be hoping you have a hand strong enough to call. He might be making his bet look like a bluff. He doesn't think you have a hand strong enough to call, but he is hoping.

    His small flop bet smells a bit like JJ.
    Last edited by Patrick O; 03-31-2017, 11:31 PM.


    • #3
      I'd like to focus on your flop raise. I don't think 44 is a good choice for a bluff here, because it has so little equity against a preflop open / flop betting range and is unlikely to improve. I'd much rather do this with 65s, 98s, etc.
      If I'm flatting 44 in a tournament, I'm set mining. When I miss my set, I usually let it go.


      • #4
        The range of hands we're worried about are A8 (16 clean combos) 88 (6 combos) reasonable players won't lead A3 or 33 but we can double the combos there if villain is that wide. We beat all single and double paired hands, trips, busted flush draw and bluffs. This math says jam him but I probably call.
        Last edited by XBobLove; 04-01-2017, 04:29 AM.


        • #5
          @ Patrick. he raised from middle position. Thanks for your exhaustive analysis.

          He had pocket 8s. Couldn't let it go on the river, with the 4 was exactly the worst card for me. Any other river, I either fold to his bet (if he bets), or continue with bluff. For some reason, in my mind, I put him on 8s, 9s or 10s. Just the feel I had. Sets likely bet the turn, and we already know he has no J or overpairs.

          @ maddog. There are a few ways to play it. I believe my raise on flop is ok - I'm hoping to get a fold out of all overcards, and leaving him with only mid-pairs or draws. As a result, I'm setting up a perfect opportunity to push him out on later streets, if those are blanks.

          @XBob. In my mind, I thought he was pretty tight, so put him on opening only with pairs and broadway type hands. Didn't think A8, A3 and 33 are in his range. In any case, these hands likely fold on flop unless suited on flush draw.
          Last edited by Glroark; 04-02-2017, 12:26 AM.