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Tough River Spot SB vs BB

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  • Tough River Spot SB vs BB

    $175 Live Local Casino Weekly

    B - 100/200
    P - BB
    S - 30k
    H - KcJc

    Action folds to the SB who is a very good tight aggressive middle aged male (40's). He raises to 600 off a stack of 28k.

    I call.

    Flop (1200) = Kd 6s Ac

    He 900. I call.

    Turn (3000) = Qc

    He ch. I ch.

    River (3000) = Jd

    He 2300.

    I ?

  • #2
    I guess our opponent could take a bet/check/bet line with a hand like Tx (probably KT or AT) or TT, but I don't think he's going to have that many straights here. I'd expect sets to bet turn most of the time.

    So to me the question is what our opponent is doing with two pair hands. Does our opponent check KQ/AK/AQ/A6 on the turn? I would think generally not, but it isn't inconceivable either. Our opponent would probably take this line with AJ (which beats us) and QJ (which we beat).

    The other question is whether our opponent is value betting weak-ish Ax hands, like A7s, and I think that is going to happen at least some percentage of the time.

    Ultimately, I think there are enough one-pair Ax hands plus QJ in our opponent's range, plus maybe some bluffs including completely random air, where we just have to shrug-call here. I do think that KJ is towards the bottom of my calling range though.
    Last edited by jpgiro; 03-29-2017, 01:28 PM.

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    • #3
      Looks like AQ/KQ to me on a range filled with a lot of 1 and 2 pair hands and some semibluffs. I give guys my age a lot of credit for overplaying/misplaying Broadway. I'd live read fold this but it's more correct to payoff.

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      • #4
        He probably had something pretty good to raise pre flop.

        He would probably c-bet his entire range against a BB who could have almost anything.

        He checked the turn, although the board is looking dangerous, I think he would bet A6, AK, AQ, KQ, AA, KK, 66, QQ he might check AJ, AT, QT, KT, KJ, QJ, TT because he doesn't want to get blown off his gut shot

        He would make the same reasoning about you.

        I don't think he is trapping on the turn with JT

        His bet size doesn't look like a blocking bet, he knows you can't raise without a ten. If he had two-pair or a set he is more likely to bet-fold about 1500. He knows you could easily have a ten.

        A stone cold bluff would be very daring.

        It boils down to this

        1 He has two pair or a set
        2 He has a ten
        3 He has a bluff

        I think he has a ten.
        Last edited by Patrick O; 03-29-2017, 09:06 PM.

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