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Any play in this spot with kqo

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  • Any play in this spot with kqo

    Position Name Stack
    UTG 1,083,897 (36.1 bb)
    MP 2,724,637 (90.8 bb)
    CO 868,928 (29 bb)
    BTN 1,046,396 (34.9 bb)
    SB Hero 863,312 (28.8 bb)
    BB 388,017 (12.9 bb)

    $5 MTT

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q of diamonds K of clubs

    UTG folds, MP raises to 68,999, 2 folds,

    Hero??

    Blinds 15k/30k antes 3k

    MP stats 22/14 aggression 42% Fold to 3bet 0% over 49hands

    Only a small sample & his sharkscope account was locked but he seemed to be playing very well.

    So far he was playing his stack well and had started opening lots. I had 4 bet light with 88 late postion situation a few orbits before and I had been fairly aggressive whenever he folded. He started opening more pots and it was becoming increasingly difficult to find spots.

    Already in the money 30 left & payout was top heavy so I was looking for spots to get chips.

    Any play here?

  • #2
    If I was in the BB I would just call and play the flop. However you are in the SB.

    MP has opened 2.33bb.

    The BB has 13bb, so I would call in SB in this spot.

    If the BB shoves and MP calls then I would fold.

    If BB shoves and MP folds I would call.

    If BB calls or folds then just play the flop
    Last edited by Patrick O; 03-29-2017, 06:34 AM.

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    • #3
      Is this a good spot? To consider this, remember a 20% threshhold. What does this mean? Is his RFI 20%+ from this position? Why 20%+? Because 20%+ is hard for him to defend against a 3bet.

      So if his range is say 25% from MP, you can 3 bet him. Now we need to consider sizing. A pot sized raise is about 250k. Deep stacked, OOP, I would 3 bet slightly larger than pot sized to about 270. Since we are medium stacked, we can go slightly smaller, maybe down to around 210k. If he is calling with 50% of his range, that means he will need to keep hands like K9s, QTs, smaller pairs, suited aces in his range so that he is not folding too often. So he will have to call with a fairly wide range or give you the pot often enough to insta profit on your 3 bet.

      If his MP range is significantly less than 20%, I'm not sure you can 3 bet this profitably, which really puts you in a tough spot. This seems a little too good to fold, but calling seems spewy as you probably have to fold to a BB shove or even if BB folds, most flops will miss and leave you guessing OOP on the c-bet.

      Comment


      • #4
        Sorry Joey, I´m trying to look at the maths here to get things straight, but my mind is blank!

        My standard 3bet from the small blind or OOP with this stack size is 3x.

        So from my point of view I´m risking 210k to win (210k + 70k (his open) + 63k (blinds and antes)-15k sb =210/328=64% I need him to fold

        Let´s assume he does call with 50% of his range

        If he opens 25% and calls 12% - I have 44% equity vs that range therefore 64-44= 20% folds required vs his 50% will fold = it is +EV

        If he open 15% and calls 7.5% - I have 34% equity vs that range 64-34= 30% - it is till +EV because he is folding 50% time.

        So, my maths is flawed and I am going around in circles.

        BUT, from his point of view, he needs to call 140k to win 468 =30% equity, which means he could call with any hand he opened with.

        What an earth am I doing wrong? I should have this maths straight by now for sure.

        I promise that if you straighten me out this time, I will write it out several times, revise it and NEVER forget it again!


        Last edited by mymindisblank; 03-31-2017, 05:48 AM.

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        • #5
          I think what JJ is saying is that the opener has to defend 50% in order not to give you an immediate profit.

          The opening bet was 2.3bb, if you 3-bet to 7bb and he folds you have risked 6.5bb to pick up 3.8bb (58%) so if he folds 58% you will make a profit, so he has to defend 42%

          If you 3-bet to 7.5bb you are risking 7bb to pick up 3.8bb (54%) now he needs to defend 46%..

          If he is opening 20% of ATC he needs to defend with 10% of ATC, and when he does defend he needs to win about 50% of occasions when there is action on the flop.

          With a 7.5bb 3-bet he is calling 5.2bb into what will be a 16bb pot, so he is getting 2.1 to 1 which is the odds to flop a pair, but his pair will not always be good, which is where the equity of 10% of ATC versus KQo comes in.

          11% of ATC is approximately 77+, suited broadway, AJo, KQo.

          If you make a pair with KQo, quite a bit of 11% of ATC is in difficulty on the flop.

          With say 8% of ATC then KQo is often in difficulty, especially as the opener is IP.

          So if he is only opening 16% ATC and defends 8% ATC then a 3-bet is not a winning strategy.

          In a number of JL's videos he states he does not have a 3-bet range against EP openers. In this case the opener was in HJ and there is a good chance his range is greater than 20% ATC. His range may be closer to 30% in which case a 3-bet is profitable.

          In online 6-max cash games a typical opening in HJ is about 15% ATC because they are frequently defending against a button 3-bet. Some online regulars have no 3-bet range from the blinds even against the button opener, who might have a 35% range.

          I prefer not to 3-bet a single player from the blinds, but will squeeze two or more players from the SB. From the BB I prefer to wait for the flop to see if a squeeze opportunity presents.

          One problem with 3-betting from the blinds against a single player is that it is fairly easy to defend against on the flop when IP. Since a player misses a flop 2/3 of occasions, raising every c-bet is difficult to defend against unless we want to get into a variance war. From the blinds we do the reverse, instead of 3-betting we call and check raise his c-bet.
          Last edited by Patrick O; 03-31-2017, 08:17 AM.

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          • #6
            What you are trying to do is some short hand math. Annie Duke had this in her book and quite honestly it is BS. There is not a short hand way to come to an answer you can actually use. There is no short cut to doing the full equation. Her short hand analysis was I am betting 210 to win 105 so I need to win 66%. I will get 50% folds now so I need 16% equity when called. But unfortunately, if you actually do the math, it does not work out this way. You have to learn the long hand algebra formula.

            The formula for this spot works this way. Assuming a 25% range. A 210k 3 bet into a 120k pot with a total pot of 470k when called. He will 4 bet the top 3% + 3% balance bluff of hands and you have to fold. His call range will consist of the hands ranging from 3% - 9.5% and he will fold 50%. Your equity when he calls is 45% (but it is higher than this as I will explain later).

            50% * 120k + 24%(-210k) + 26%[(470k * 45%) - 210k] = 59.99k cEV

            Now we assumed 45% equity when he calls, but you will get more than that. About 60% of the time the post flop action will go c-bet/fold and in those hands he will surrender all of his remaining equity.

            You have to learn how to use this formula.

            http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...xpected-value/
            http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...lue/calculate/

            There is no way around it. The shortcut methods are not replacement for the full computations. The short cut methods only work if you think your opponent folds so often you can show an automatic profit. For instance, if you expect him to fold 70% of the time when you bet 210k to win 105k you can do the math and realize if he folds more than 66% you auto profit. But when you need to combine both sides of the equation for equity, you must do the full computation.

            Additionally, if he 4 bets the top of his range then calls his entire range for pot odds, that is good for you. You have the initiative a bigger pot and a hand that has 54% equity against his range.
            Last edited by jjpregler; 03-31-2017, 07:01 AM.

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            • #7
              Personally, I think we should probably be calling here with KQo. We have other hands (weak suited Ax, smaller suited connectors) that we can use as 3-bet bluffs that aren't good enough to call and then the math above comes into play. .

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              • #8
                From the SB, I don't like having any call range any more. There are a few suited broadways as the exception, but for the most part my SB range is 3 bet/fold. Especially against MP and LP raisers.

                But yes, if there are any unsuited hands in a call range KQo and ATo might qualify.

                Let's measure the expected value of a call: 180k * 50% - 60k = 30k cEV.

                And having less expectation and being the passive player instead of taking the initiative will also mean you won't get to realize your equity as often. The passive player is usually the person who does not get to fully realize their equity in pots.
                Last edited by jjpregler; 03-31-2017, 11:14 AM.

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                • #9
                  Thank you very much. I have printed this thread and shall study it this weekend.

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