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Calling a large 3bet?

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  • Calling a large 3bet?

    Blinds were 100/200, 20 antes. I had 88 in HJ at a 9 handed table and raised to 500. The button raised to 2100. He had a history of raising to that sizing the couple times I saw him 3bet. I needed 34% equity to call. Against a range of 99+, AJs+, AQo+ and KQs I have 37% equity, so I have the raw equity to call. Since I am out of position though, I don't know if I will realize that raw equity. The guy only has 8k behind, so I am not getting anywhere close to the implied odds to set mine. I opted to fold. I had about 27.5k behind which isn't that relevant.

    What do you guys think? I am just basing this on my judgement. It might be fairly close, but I don't love 88 out of position here. Any comments or thoughts highly welcomed. Maybe JJpregler will weigh in hopefully haha.

  • #2
    I think i will be lurking around on these threads trying to learn . . . but I do have a question . . .

    You say he had a history of 3 betting large. Did he ever go to show down after doing so? If so, were those hands in the range you assigned him? Was he 3 betting often? I ask because your range for him may be too tight IMHO.

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    • #3
      My actions would come down to fold or jam.

      The issue with your equity calculation - as you mention - you will rarely, if ever, get to realize this equity unless you plan on calling to the river as a high percentage of the time this hand will go ch/bet/fold on the flop.

      You are giving the villain a pretty snug 3-betting range, if this is the case and the opponent is fairly snug with little to no bluffs in his/her range I think this is a clear fold.

      If however, the villain has a wider 3-bet range that contains a balance of 3-bet value hands and 3-bet bluffs, then a shove becomes a very viable option.

      Other factors such as villain tendencies (3-bet fold, call a 4-bet), do you think this villain folds AQ, KQs or AJs? What is their image and your history against them play a role as well.
      Last edited by JredA; 03-28-2017, 08:25 PM.

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      • #4
        He had 3bet once before, in a hand involving myself where there was a limper, I raised to I think 3.5x the limper and he made it 4.5x my raise from the sb I think. At that point he had 3bet twice in 23 chances. On the flop he shoved and the limper who had called folded. Later when I had more hands on him his 3bet stat was 9% which was I think around 4 times out of 43 chances. My range may be too narrow for him, I agree. I'm not including any bluffs for instance. So that's definitely true, but I think I have the correct odds to call.

        However, I'm not sure how his range would actually affect the hand that much. If I call the pot is greater than half his stack. I expect him to probably go all in with perhaps his whole range based on what I had seen before and on a favorable flop I would have to guess and call. On a board with a couple cards over ten, I would probably have to check fold. I mean, I might have slightly more equity vs a wider 3 bet range, which isn't really the problem. I might be as high as 45%. In that case, I might be better of 4betting all in if I think his range is weak for some reason but I had not seen that up to that point. I only had about 60 hands on him at the point of this hand. Perhaps 4betting all in is the play.
        Last edited by Drobb; 03-28-2017, 08:37 PM. Reason: This reply was before I saw Jred's post, I was answering the first response.

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        • #5
          JredA, I didn't have enough hands on him to know if he would 3bet fold, and maybe I am wrong here, but I don't see alot of guys in the small stakes games raise folding hands where they put in 20% of their stack with hands like AQo and AJs although they probably should. I'm not saying the strategy is great, but if he was planning to 3bet fold I think a raise in the vicinity of 2.5-3x would be fine and if I call he can get alot of folds on the flop. So raising to over 4x and 20% of his stack to fold would be quite a poor strategy IMO.

          I gave him a somewhat tight 3bet range based on the size and proportion to his stack. His PFR was 10 at this ponit, but it ws only 60 hands. He had only 3bet twice and that was the first time I had played with him so I didn't have a clear idea of his tendencies. 4bet jamming for 50 big blinds seems a bit big for 88. In my first reply I said maybe that's the play. I think I like it better than calling.

          My first reply was at the same time Jred was replying, so I did not see his, and some of his comments agree with what I was saying in response to Jinnrex.

          Thanks guys for the replies btw.
          Last edited by Drobb; 03-28-2017, 08:41 PM.

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          • #6
            I forgot that later after I had lost some hands and had 29 bb and the guy 3bet me a third time this time to 3.6x, which was the 4th time he had 3bet and 3rd time he 3bet me I did opt to 4bet shove with 33 and he called off with AJo. I'm going through some hands still now. I hit a set and won. I made the final table of this tourn btw and lost 77 to 55 at the final table for a disappointing finish. It was after this hand that I noticed he had 3bet 4 out of 43 times. It was 3 of 43 at this point. I was basically shoving hoping for a fold or a flip. It was only for 29 blinds and I was getting sick of the guy of the guy 3betting me and by that point I started to suspect maybe he was 3betting me light.

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            • #7
              3 out of 43 is 7%. If you shove you are getting 50bb in with 88. I think your 27.5K is relevant, because you can threaten his tournament life without risking yours.

              With his bet sizing it looks like he is making a career out of stealing pots especially IP against LP raisers. He may be deliberately choosing this size to make it difficult for an OOP player to call.

              I don't think you can play a flop OOP with 88 when his SPR will be 2.

              If you shove he needs to call 8K into what will be a 21K pot, which means he has to have 38% equity.

              If he is capable of thinking this way, he should call every time, because even his wide 3-bet range should have 38% equity against your shove range, except that he does not know your shove range.

              On the other hand you have plenty of chips to be able to put him to the test for his tournament life. So he may fold some hands that are ahead of you, for example 99, TT maybe even JJ. Against his non-pair hands you are slight favourite or flipping. I think he has just enough behind for you to have some fold equity

              Because his 3-bet looks a bit suspicious, I think a bluff shove with 88 is the best course.

              These contests can be somewhat a test of will. Put yourself in Villain's spot, how is he feeling about his 99 or AQ.
              Last edited by Patrick O; 03-29-2017, 01:48 AM.

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              • #8
                Hey Patrick, regarding the 3bet %, PT4 shows it at the time of the hand. At the time of the hand in question, which was the 2nd time he 3bet me, he was 2/23, so that's where the 9% comes from. The 3rd time he 3bet me and I 4bet jammed and he called off with AJo, At that point, he was actually 3/44 which is 7% as you mention. So this was his 4th time 3betting, but 3rd time 3 betting me over a period of about 1 hr and 45 minutes. He was two to my left. He did it once on the button vs me in the HJ, once in the SB with my in the CO and once in the bb with me on the button. So you may have a point, which is he may have just been using a strategy of 3betting big vs late position raisers.

                Personally, I still feel like I don't think he is putting in 20% of his stack to fold, or if he is, I think that's a bad strategy. Risking 10.5 bb out of 50 when he could risk 8 doesn't make a bunch of sense to me. He later calls off 30 bb with AJo. I think people make the mistake of perhaps making a good light 3bet but then when shoved on they don't fold. For instance, AJo. If he thinks I will call 3bets with hands like A9 or lower then that is a fine linear 3bet. I think AJo is kind of a 3bet bluff with blockers vs a lot of people or a linear 3bet vs people who will call with reverse implied odds hands. If you categorize it as such, you should not be calling a 4bet shove with it. Since he did, I don't think you can assume this player would fold 99-JJ. Especially since I folded to his 4.5x 3bet and his 4.2x 3bet and this time I jammed so you'd think if he was ever gonna give me credit it would be then.

                I also think saying his 3bet looks suspicious is a dangerous game unless you have seen otherwise. Many times I think wow this bet looks too big, no one would do this with AA. And then they show up with AA. In these small stakes games it is hard to know with some of these guys. I don't know if they are just so scared of getting cracked that is what they do or it is some kind of leveling game.

                I like your point about attacking late position openers. Also because I folded the time before, perhaps he thinks it will work against me. Both of these reasons are why I jammed the 33 later. I think that's definitely possible. However, I have learned it is better to not make assumptions until you see them. I generally make the assumption that large opens represent middle pairs like 55-TT or even JJ because people worry about seeing overcards on flops. I think this holds true alot. But in smaller stakes games, that is sometimes a bad assumption because again some guys just raise big with the nut hands like QQ-AA and are just happy to take the pot down pre or hope their opponent has a high but worse pair or AK.

                I want to make it clear I appreciate all points and I think you made some very good points and I appreciate the time you took to respond very much and I am not arguing. I think it's definitely possible he is looking to exploit what he assumes is a wide range. His PFR was fairly low throughout the tournament and I didn't see him doing too many other weird things, but that may be one of his things he likes doing and it's a reasonable strategy for sure. I am just offering why I might agree or disagree based on what I saw in the tournament.
                Last edited by Drobb; 03-29-2017, 10:50 AM.

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