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$1675 WSOP Circuit ME Jam Spot

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  • $1675 WSOP Circuit ME Jam Spot

    One area of my game I have been working on is finding and recognizing +EV jam spots when I am in the 20-30bb range. As we move up in stakes I think this becomes a very important area to improving as a tournament player.

    This spot occurred in a $1675 WSOP Circuit event and its important to note the Hero is a well known pro who has a very aggressive image and is the effective stack. I enjoy looking at spots successful players take advantage of and am curious if this is a good spot or if this play is a little spewy.

    It is also important to note that I do not have a ton of information as far as the dynamics involved or the image of the others in the hand (which I am sure played a factor).

    The bubble has busted and we are in the min cash territory with no major pay jumps. I know the Hero is in for a few bullets, so a min cash is the last thing on his mind.

    B - 4k/8k + 1k
    P - SB
    S - 215k (26bb)
    H - Q9o

    Villain 1 opens to 19k from EP with a stack of approximately 35bb.

    Villain 2 calls on the BTN.

    Hero raises to 164k leaving only 51k behind (I am not sure of the thought process for leaving less than 10bb behind).

    Villain 1 thinks for a minute or so and Jams all in. Button folds. Hero calls.

    At the time of this raise from hero there is roughly 60k in the pot. He is essentially risking his tournament life or 215k to win 60k.

    So this play has to work almost 80% of the time to be a +EV play = 215 / (215 + 60) = .78

    Is this the correct way to look at this spot?

    Curious to get other thoughts on this in general and what we should look for in +EV jam spots at these stack depths.

  • #2
    When I run this through a fold equity calculator, assuming we have about 25% equity if we get called by the EP (and assuming the BTN always folds) we need to get our opponent to fold about 57% of the time to a 164K bet and about 64% of the time to a shove.

    Assuming a range for the EP of something like:
    22+,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KQo

    The question then becomes what hands is the EP capable of folding here. Would they fold a hand like 88 or 99? If they are, then this is probably a profitable shove as it means our opponent is probably folding enough to justify it. However, it seems thin at best - and having Q9 is actually not that great because it makes it less likely our opponent has hands in that no man's land (99, AQo, KQ) that villains can consider folding to a shove in these spots.

    I also think in these spots where we need to get our opponents to fold a large portion of their range, it makes more sense to raise MP or LP raisers than EP raisers, simply because they'll have more hands they can fold.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by jpgiro View Post
      When I run this through a fold equity calculator, assuming we have about 25% equity if we get called by the EP (and assuming the BTN always folds) we need to get our opponent to fold about 57% of the time to a 164K bet and about 64% of the time to a shove.

      Assuming a range for the EP of something like:
      22+,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KQo

      The question then becomes what hands is the EP capable of folding here. Would they fold a hand like 88 or 99? If they are, then this is probably a profitable shove as it means our opponent is probably folding enough to justify it. However, it seems thin at best - and having Q9 is actually not that great because it makes it less likely our opponent has hands in that no man's land (99, AQo, KQ) that villains can consider folding to a shove in these spots.

      I also think in these spots where we need to get our opponents to fold a large portion of their range, it makes more sense to raise MP or LP raisers than EP raisers, simply because they'll have more hands they can fold.
      What fold equity calculator do you prefer?

      Comment


      • #4
        This play looks weird.

        I am assuming EP means there is still at least LJ, HJ, CO, Btn & blinds still to act.

        It looks like a standard squeeze, but with some strange details.

        Squeezing an EP opener against a button caller is not a great idea, because the opener is supposed to be worried about the caller.

        In this case the opener is likely much stronger than the caller, and knows it. Squeezing a CO opener against a button caller is a great idea.

        The opening raise was 2.375bb.

        A squeeze size is usually 4 to 5 times the opening size, in this case the size was 20.5 bb which is 8.6 times.

        He raised to 20.5bb leaving 6.4bb behind.

        The squeeze size is important, because if the opener calls then the caller may call, now the opener has to worry about floating the squeezer's c-bet with the caller still behind him. Ideally the squeezer would like both to fold pre flop, but on the other hand does not want to risk too much on the squeeze. Hence the sweet spot between risking too much, getting both to call, or getting both to fold.

        In other words he would like both to call or both to fold. The correct size, not too large, may better induce a fold from the opener because he knows the size is also attractive to the caller and that once the opener has called the caller is more likely to call.

        Q9o is not a standard squeeze hand. Squeeze ranges can be 22+, 56s+, 86s+, A2s+, KJo etc but Q9o is stretching it a bit.

        The stack sizes are problematic, the opener has 35bb and the squeezer 26bb. Ideally the squeezer should have the opener covered so that he is threatening the opener's tournament life. Otherwise, the opener, knowing he is possibly against a squeezing range, can now threaten the squeezer by 4-betting or shoving, which is what happened.

        I think the pro was having a brain fart aka spewy. The result was that he was getting 26bb in with Q9o. People think I am a bit strange, after seeing this I feel almost normal.

        I don't think this is a play you want to be writing into your play book.

        To see a subtle defence against a squeeze look at the post "Does Ivey action make sense"
        Last edited by Patrick O; 03-29-2017, 08:49 AM.

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        • #5
          I thought it looked really weird.

          I was struggling to find a way this play makes sense from an EV perspective. My only thought was that the opener may have been very loose and showed an unwillingness to call off in combination with a a loose passive BTN.

          But like I mentioned I have no info on the villains.

          Of course the EP raiser called with AKo, the BTN folded and the board ran out T J 4 2 K giving the Hero a rivered straight and nice sized pot. I am just not sure I like the play.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by JredA View Post

            What fold equity calculator do you prefer?
            https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

            Comment

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